Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 15 July 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $107.78/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,293 MW near the top of this morning's ramp. Prices have been volatile overnight, swinging from lows of $0.20-20/MWh during light-load troughs to peaks above $175/MWh around 17:20 AEST yesterday and $147-149/MWh in the 06:25-06:30 window this morning. The 24-hour trend shows a clear morning demand ramp pushing prices from sub-$40/MWh territory around 06:00 AEST up through the $100-150/MWh band as heating load builds on a cold 7.2°C morning.

Generation mix is hydro-dominated at 1,262 MW, with wind contributing 149 MW and gas OCGT filling 207 MW of the balance. Renewable penetration sits at 87.18%, easing back from the 100% renewable stretch recorded between 04:30 and 07:30 AEST when hydro and wind alone met all demand. Carbon intensity has correspondingly ticked up to 0.0833 tCO2/MWh from near-zero overnight lows, tracking the reintroduction of gas generation as demand climbs. Wind potential is limited today at 0.8-1.1, keeping wind's contribution modest relative to hydro.

Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation ahead, with the 07:30-12:30 AEST window carrying extreme volatility: forecast RRP spikes to $457.50/MWh at 07:30, easing to $228-260/MWh through the 08:00-09:30 band, then surging again to $413.93/MWh at 10:00 and $421.22/MWh at 12:00. This reflects tight reserve conditions compounding with morning demand growth. Prices are forecast to moderate through the afternoon, dropping back to the $75-107/MWh range by 14:00-18:00 AEST. Traders should note the identified low-price window overnight into tomorrow (02:00-07:00 AEST 16 July) averaging $70-87/MWh with zero carbon intensity, offering the best load-shifting opportunity, saving up to $387/MWh versus today's peak.

On notices, TAS1 has seen a cluster of lightning-related contingency reclassifications this week affecting the Gordon-Chapel St 220kV lines, Farrell-Reece 220kV lines, and Sheffield-George