Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 9 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $119.13/MWh at 06:25 AEST, up from an overnight trough near $61-$88/MWh but well below the $232-$246/MWh spikes recorded in the 07:00-08:00 window yesterday evening. Demand is climbing through the morning ramp, currently at 1376 MW and rising from a low of 1192 MW overnight. The 24-hour trend shows the classic Tasmanian evening peak pattern, with prices holding above $150/MWh for several hours before easing back through the early hours to sub-$70/MWh troughs around 04:20-05:40 AEST.
Generation is almost entirely hydro-based, with 1590 MW of hydro output against 76 MW of wind and just 30 MW of gas (OCGT). This puts renewable penetration at 98.24% for the latest interval, consistent with a run of fully renewable intervals (100%) recorded through the middle of the day yesterday. Carbon intensity is correspondingly low at 0.0114 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the region's hydro-dominant mix — Tasmania has posted numerous 0.0000 tCO2/MWh readings over the past 24 hours whenever gas plant sat offline.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further price rise through the morning peak, with the 21:00-22:30 AEST window (today's evening peak in UTC-shifted forecast terms) forecast at $160-$172/MWh, before easing back overnight. Prices are then forecast to fall sharply into tomorrow afternoon, dropping to $36-$52/MWh by 16:00-16:30 AEST and bottoming near $10/MWh by 17:30-18:00 AEST — indicating strong hydro availability and softer demand. The load window flags this late-afternoon period (17:30-18:30) as a low-risk, low-cost opportunity, saving roughly $162/MWh versus current peak pricing.
On notices, there are no active constraints specific to TAS1 currently in effect. Recent TAS1-related market notices from early July concerned lightning-driven reclassification of the Sheffield-George Town and Norwood-Scottsdale line contingencies, both of which have since been cancelled and reverted to non-credible status. No new transmission or generation issues are affecting Tasmania today; recent active notices are concentrated in VIC, SA, NSW and QLD covering interconnector limit