Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 6 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $107.33/MWh at 06:30 AEST, up from a low of $39.87/MWh overnight (02:00 AEST) and tracking above yesterday evening's $88-100/MWh band. Demand has climbed to 1365 MW as the morning ramp builds, consistent with the region's typical weekday load-following pattern. Prices have been volatile through the 24-hour window, swinging between $46/MWh and $116/MWh, reflecting hydro dispatch adjustments against demand rather than fuel scarcity.
Generation is running at 1551 MW hydro and 59 MW wind, with gas OCGT at 0 MW — hydro is supplying effectively all output this morning. Renewable penetration reads 100% and carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh, a position Tasmania has held continuously through the past 24 hours per the carbon history. This reflects strong hydro storage levels typical for early winter following the wetter months.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing to $89/MWh through this evening's off-peak, but a sharp spike is flagged for 22:00-22:30 AEST tonight, with forecast RRP reaching $146.75/MWh and $163.99/MWh respectively before retreating to $91.70/MWh by 23:30. Overnight into Wednesday, prices are forecast to hold in the $83-90/MWh range, with a secondary bump to $103/MWh around 06:30 AEST tomorrow. Load-shifting windows identified for tomorrow morning (05:00-06:00 and 03:30-04:30 AEST) offer average prices near $82-84/MWh with zero carbon intensity, useful reference points for flexible load scheduling.
No active market notices directly affect TAS1 today. The most recent Tasmania-specific notices relate to lightning-driven contingency reclassifications on the Sheffield-George Town and Norwood-Scottsdale lines from 2-3 July, both since cancelled and reverted to non-credible status. Current weather shows 3°C with heating demand at 15 (elevated) and negligible solar potential (0%), consistent with the winter demand profile driving this morning's price firmness. Wind potential remains low (0.7%) today, tapering further into midweek before lifting toward the weekend.