Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 3 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $59.19/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of an overnight range that swung from -$13.44/MWh in the early hours to a peak of $90.38/MWh around 07:30 yesterday evening. Demand currently reads 1,141 MW, off the evening peak of roughly 1,323 MW recorded near 17:40 AEST. Prices have been volatile through the 24-hour window, with several negative and near-zero prints overnight (00:00-05:00 AEST) followed by a sharp climb through the morning peak, then settling into a $50-75/MWh band through the day.
Generation is running entirely on hydro and wind, with hydro contributing 801 MW and wind adding 493 MW at the latest interval — total renewable output of roughly 1,294 MW against 1,141 MW demand, meaning Tasmania is a net exporter over the Basslink/Marinus interconnectors at this snapshot. No gas (OCGT) generation is registered. Carbon intensity reads 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, consistent with the carbon history showing zero intensity across every interval for the past 24 hours.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming price trajectory into today's peak. Prices ease toward $50/MWh through the early morning (00:00-03:00 AEST) before climbing sharply from 04:00, reaching a forecast high of $115.28/MWh around 12:00 midday and holding in the $85-110/MWh band through the afternoon peak window (07:00-14:00 AEST). This aligns with weak wind potential in the daily outlook (4.6 falling to near-zero by 05 July) and modest solar contribution, tightening the supply cushion despite hydro's flexibility. Traders should note the 03:00-05:00 AEST load window as the cheapest period today, averaging $18-40/MWh with zero carbon intensity, offering the best window for flexible load shifting.
On notices, TAS1-specific items are limited to two now-cancelled lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Sheffield-George Town 220kV and Norwood-Scottsdale 110kV lines, both reverted to non-credible status early yesterday morning with no ongoing constraint impact. No active TAS1 market interventions or directions are in force. Broader NEM notices — the NSW Upper Tumut credible contingency