Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 29 June 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $25.18/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, well below the levels seen during the overnight and morning peak periods when prices held in the $70–$87/MWh range through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window. The sharp drop began around 18:05 AEST and prices have since anchored near $25/MWh for approximately two hours, reflecting a material demand taper — total demand has eased to 1,105 MW from a peak of around 1,420 MW recorded during the evening peak. The 24-hour price history shows a pattern of sustained elevated pricing across the morning and shoulder periods (largely $69–$82/MWh), with the current low-price regime representing a significant downward shift in market conditions.
The generation mix is straightforward: hydro is providing 982.79 MW and wind is contributing 128.43 MW, with gas OCGT at zero. Combined output from these two fuel types is 1,111 MW, covering current demand entirely from within the region. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, a position Tasmania has maintained consistently across the entire recorded history window, with only a single brief interval around 03:30 AEST showing a marginal 0.0131 tCO2/MWh reading at 97.99% renewable penetration. Weather conditions are overcast (99% cloud cover) with minimal wind at 6.5 km/h and temperature at 7.9°C, driving a heating demand index of 10.1 with no solar input.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices rising sharply from the current trough. The trajectory from the 06:01 AEST forecast run shows prices holding near $25–$27/MWh until approximately 07:30 AEST, then stepping up to $50/MWh from 08:00 AEST and sustaining there through to around 22:30 AEST. A notable spike to $81.16/MWh is forecast at 09:00 AEST before retreating. Prices are then expected to pull back into the $25/MWh range from approximately 22:30 AEST through the afternoon of 30 June. The optimal load windows identified for today fall between 22:30 and 04:00 AEST (30 June AEST-equivalent afternoon periods), with average prices near $24.63–$25.20/MWh and savings of $56–$57/MWh versus the forecast peak — low-risk windows for flexible load scheduling or hydro conservation ahead of the expected $50–$81/MWh period.
No active market notices directly constrain Tasmanian transfer capacity today. The most relevant recent notice for TAS1 is the cancellation (Market Notice 144334, issued 25 June) of a long-standing reclassified non-credible contingency involving simultaneous loss of 21 turbines at Woolnorth wind farm and a transmission line — constraint set F-T_GEN_RECL was revoked at 13:30 AEST on 25 June, modestly easing the contingency envelope for Tasmanian wind. The active inter-regional transfer notices relate to NSW and SA network elements (Balranald–Buronga X3 line and Buronga B Bus isolator) with indirect flow implications via V-S-MNSP1