Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 28 June 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $70.20/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,276 MW. Reviewing the past 24 hours of dispatch data, prices have oscillated between two dominant bands: a base level around $70.22/MWh and an elevated band at $79.26/MWh, with that $79.26 level holding persistently through the morning peak from approximately 07:00 to 10:30 AEST. Two brief excursions to $119.73/MWh and $94.11/MWh occurred around 10:35–10:40 AEST, and a cluster of low-price intervals — dipping as far as $0.11/MWh and $23.27/MWh — appeared through the 00:30–03:35 AEST window, consistent with interconnector-driven oversupply during overnight off-peak conditions. The 24-hour volume-weighted average across the history sits materially above today's opening level, meaning the current $70.20 represents relatively soft pricing for the region.
Generation is entirely hydro and wind, with hydro contributing 1,066 MW and wind 195 MW against a demand of 1,276 MW at the latest interval — that implies a modest net import position via Basslink of around 15 MW, though intra-region scheduling effects may account for some of that gap. Gas OCGT registers zero output. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, a condition that has held continuously across every recorded interval in the carbon history dataset for the past 24-plus hours. With temperatures at 3.7°C overnight and a forecast maximum of 14.3°C today under 93% cloud cover, heating demand at 14.3 units is the dominant driver; wind potential is low at 1.2, limiting additional wind contribution relative to hydro.
Predispatch forecasts signal a sharp and notable price spike to $154.12/MWh in the 08:00 AEST half-hour, before retracing to $79.24/MWh through the 08:30–11:00 AEST window. Prices are then forecast to ease progressively through the late morning, with a stepdown into the $40.16–$40.28/MWh range from 16:00–17:00 AEST, followed by a sustained trough of $27.14–$27.18/MWh from 00:00 to 03:00 AEST tomorrow. The optimal flexible load windows are forecast between 00:00 and 03:00 AEST (29 June) at ~$27/MWh, saving approximately $127/MWh against the predispatch peak. Traders holding short positions heading into the 08:00 interval should note the predispatch spike — whether interconnector congestion or a scheduling artefact, the single-interval magnitude warrants monitoring across subsequent predispatch runs.
No active market notices directly affect Tasmania's generation or network today. The one TAS-specific notice in the dataset — a cancellation of a reclassified non-credible contingency at Woolnorth wind farm (constraint set F-T_GEN_RECL revoked 25 June) — is resolved and no longer binding. Active notices in the queue relate exclusively to SA reserve conditions (LOR1 forecasts for 3–5 July) and a SA