Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 26 June 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $79.18/MWh against a total demand of 1,264 MW as of 06:30 AEST. That current price is markedly softer than the morning peak seen earlier today, when prices sustained above $100/MWh through the 17:00–21:00 AEST window and touched $121.47/MWh at 17:00 AEST — the overnight-to-morning arc reflecting typical winter heating demand ramp. The 24-hour price history shows a clear three-phase pattern: an overnight floor clustering around $70.22/MWh during the 12:30–02:00 AEST trough, a brief dip to $41.20/MWh across nine consecutive intervals from 14:05–14:45 AEST (pointing to a period of suppressed interconnector pricing or dispatch floor conditions), and a sustained morning/daytime peak band of $100–$121/MWh from roughly 16:15–21:00 AEST before settling back toward the $79 range.
The generation mix is straightforward: hydro is producing 1,205.94 MW, wind is contributing 8.89 MW, and gas OCGT sits at 0 MW, for a total visible generation of approximately 1,215 MW against the 1,264 MW demand — the difference sourced via Basslink interconnector flows from Victoria. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, a position that has held continuously across every recorded interval in the dataset. Today's weather adds context: current conditions show 4.5°C with a heating demand index of 13.5, light wind at 7.4 km/h, and 48% cloud cover. The daily outlook for today reaches just 11.6°C maximum with 62% average cloud cover and minimal wind potential (0.4), meaning hydro remains the dominant dispatchable source with limited wind contribution.
Predispatch forecasts present a broadly stable but episodically elevated outlook through the remainder of Saturday. Prices are forecast to hold near $79.26/MWh from the current interval through to approximately 10:00 AEST, with a single spike to $85.48/MWh flagged at 09:00 AEST and $80.04/MWh at 10:00 AEST. The most notable feature in the forward curve is a sharp forecast print of $120.24/MWh at 17:00 AEST — directly coinciding with winter evening demand pickup — followed by a secondary high of $120.24/MWh again at 19:30 AEST and $101.01/MWh at 20:00 AEST. A standout single-interval forecast of $188.35/MWh appears at 00:30 AEST Sunday morning, which warrants close attention; it is isolated and likely reflects a tight predispatch constraint or interconnector limitation in that half-hour, but it is the highest forward print in the curve and could signal short-duration price exposure for any scheduled overnight loads.
Two market notices carry direct or proximate relevance to Tasmania. Most materially, AEMO cancelled the reclassification of the simultaneous loss of 21 turbines at Woolnorth wind farm and a transmission line as a credible contingency event, revoking constraint set F-T_GEN_RECL from 23:30 AEST on 25