Regional Outlook — TAS1: Saturday 27 June 2026
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $70.22/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, down from the dominant $79.26/MWh band that held for the bulk of the past 24 hours. The overnight period saw prices oscillate between the two levels, with a brief spike to $234.64/MWh at 08:00 AEST Saturday — a single-interval aberration that quickly resolved — and two sub-$42/MWh prints around 19:50–20:00 AEST Saturday before reverting to $79.26/MWh. The current $70.22/MWh level reflects the softer early-morning Sunday demand profile, with total demand sitting at 1,150.9 MW, well below the overnight peak of around 1,460 MW recorded through the 18:00–19:00 AEST window Saturday.
Generation is supplied entirely by hydro (987.07 MW) and wind (125.24 MW), with gas OCGT at zero output. Renewable penetration is 100% and carbon intensity registers 0 tCO2/MWh — a condition that has held continuously across every recorded interval in the dataset. Temperature at 2.1°C with a heating demand index of 15.9 is consistent with a cold mid-winter Sunday morning; demand will rise as the day progresses toward the afternoon, with today's forecast maximum of 10.7°C providing limited additional thermal load.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding at $70.22/MWh through approximately 12:00 AEST before lifting to $79.26/MWh from 16:00 AEST onward. The most notable step-up arrives in the 17:30–19:30 AEST window, where forecasts reach $84.23/MWh — the highest predispatch level in the outlook — coinciding with expected morning demand build on the mainland NEM and the typical evening ramp in Tasmania. Prices ease back to $79.26/MWh through mid-morning before a brief dip to $70.22/MWh around 22:30–23:00 AEST, then stabilise in the high-$70s through to end of day. Flexible load operators have optimal windows in the 12:00–15:00 AEST and 02:00–05:00 AEST (Sunday night) periods at $70.22/MWh, saving approximately $14/MWh against the afternoon peak.
No active market notices directly affect TAS1 operations today. The most relevant recent TAS notice — a cancellation of the Woolnorth wind farm credible contingency reclassification (Notice 144334) — removes a long-standing constraint set (F-T_GEN_RECL) that had been in place since December 2016, modestly improving the headroom for wind dispatch in the region. Active reserve notices in the queue relate to SA (LOR2 on 30 June, now cancelled, and an LOR1 on 3 July), with no current reserve adequacy concern declared for Tasmania. AEMO's planned MarketNet maintenance on 6 July (Sydney) and 9 July (Brisbane) carries no anticipated dispatch impact for TAS1 participants, though switching VPN connections ahead of those windows is recommended per AEMO guidance.