Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 25 June 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $71.94/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,254.79 MW — well below the evening peak of 1,501.93 MW recorded around 08:00 AEST and down from the overnight high of $228.31/MWh at 18:00 AEST. The 24-hour price profile was volatile, with multiple intervals spiking above $200/MWh during the morning peak window (17:45–18:00 AEST) before settling sharply through the afternoon into the low-$40s/MWh range between 04:05 and 06:00 AEST. The current price represents a significant softening as evening demand begins its typical Friday ramp.

Generation is almost entirely hydro: the mix at 06:30 AEST shows hydro contributing 1,127.14 MW and wind 51.57 MW, with gas OCGT at zero. Renewable penetration sits at 100% and carbon intensity registers 0 tCO2/MWh — a level maintained consistently since approximately 08:30 AEST and for the bulk of the overnight period. Earlier in the 24-hour window, trace gas dispatch pushed intensity briefly to 0.0331 tCO2/MWh, but the region has operated fossil-free for the majority of today's trading. Current temperature sits at 3.1°C with a heating demand index of 14.9, confirming typical mid-winter residential load conditions despite the relatively low current demand figure.

The predispatch forecast shows prices holding in the $70–$82/MWh band through the overnight period (07:00–15:00 AEST), then stepping up sharply from 18:30 AEST onward: $120.46/MWh at 18:30, $121.07/MWh at 19:30, and $120.14/MWh at 20:00 AEST, before easing back toward $93/MWh at 20:30 and $79/MWh from 21:00 AEST. A notable spike to $155.57/MWh is forecast at 23:00 AEST. Traders should note the mid-morning price elevation window closely — the pattern from the prior 24 hours, where prices spiked to $221–$228/MWh during the 17:45–18:00 AEST period, is a direct precedent for what predispatch is flagging again around the same morning window tomorrow.

The key active market notice for Tasmania is the cancellation of constraint set F-T_GEN_RECL at 13:30 AEST today (Market Notice 144334), which revoked the reclassification of a non-credible contingency involving the simultaneous loss of 21 turbines at Woolnorth wind farm and a Tasmanian transmission line. AEMO is satisfied the event is unlikely to recur. This removes a binding system security constraint that had been active since December 2016 and may modestly improve headroom for wind dispatch in the region. Separately, a forecast LOR1 condition was previously declared for TAS for the 08:00–09:00 AEST window today (Market Notice 144279) but was subsequently cancelled (Market Notice 144327) at 15:00 AEST on 23 June — no reserve adequacy concern is currently active