Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 1 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $53.12/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the lower end of a volatile 24-hour band that swung from $10.10/MWh overnight to a sustained $88.24/MWh plateau through the evening peak on 1 July. Demand currently sits at 1,052 MW, down from the ~1,300 MW peak recorded around 17:30-17:40 AEST yesterday. The overnight trough saw prices collapse to $10.10-25.16/MWh between 01:35 and 02:00 AEST as demand eased below 900 MW, before this morning's ramp pushed prices back toward the $50-90/MWh band.
Generation mix is entirely hydro and wind: hydro contributes 760.6 MW (68.5%) and wind adds 348.8 MW (31.5%), with gas OCGT sitting idle at 0 MW. This gives Tasmania a carbon intensity of 0 tCO2/MWh and 100% renewable generation in the latest interval — consistent with the region's carbon profile through the past 24 hours, which has held at zero intensity across every recorded interval since 21:00 AEST yesterday. The regional renewable penetration score of 48.8% reflects a broader scoring methodology rather than the real-time generation mix, which is currently tracking at full renewable output.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further easing through today's trading session, with prices dipping to $50.18-53.38/MWh into the early afternoon before a brief spike to $88.22/MWh forecast around 09:00 AEST (target interval 2026-07-01T23:00 UTC), then falling into negative territory overnight — forecasts show -$6.63/MWh between 13:30 and 14:00 AEST and troughs near -$5.20/MWh shortly after, reflecting strong wind and hydro availability against low demand. Prices are expected to stay depressed through the middle of the day, with several intervals forecast at $0.02-0.08/MWh into the afternoon. Weather supports this trajectory: wind potential is low (3.1 out of scale) with cloud cover at 52% today, and temperatures ranging 6.9-14.3°C, keeping heating demand moderate rather than driving a sharp peak.
On notices, Tasmania has one direct entry: AEMO's 25 June cancellation of the reclassified non-credible contingency event for Woolnorth wind far