Regional Outlook — TAS1: Thursday 2 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $0.08/MWh at 06:30 AEST, capping an extended stretch of near-zero and negative pricing that has defined the region since midday yesterday. Prices ranged as low as -$7.87/MWh through the afternoon and evening period (12:00-20:00 AEST), a sharp fall from the $50-52/MWh band that held through Wednesday evening and overnight Thursday. Demand currently sits at 1,148 MW, mid-range against a 24-hour band of roughly 950-1,375 MW, with the overnight peak near 1,370 MW at 07:50 AEST yesterday.
Generation mix is running at 497.9 MW hydro and 332.2 MW wind, with zero gas OCGT output, for total dispatch of 830.1 MW against 1,148 MW demand — the balance covered by Basslink imports/exports and rounding in the snapshot. Renewable penetration is 100% and carbon intensity reads 0 tCO2/MWh, consistent with Tasmania's typical profile and unchanged across the entire 24-hour carbon history. The scores panel shows renewable penetration at 49.5 and price stability at 20, reflecting the volatility in the price series rather than the generation mix itself.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding near zero to slightly negative through the morning, with the 09:00-11:30 AEST window projected between -$1.20 and -$1.19/MWh before a modest recovery into afternoon trade. Prices are forecast to lift into the $32-50/MWh band from 16:30 AEST onward as evening demand builds, reaching $50.18/MWh by 17:00 AEST and holding there into tomorrow's early hours. Load-shifting windows identified for today cluster in the 11:00-16:00 AEST period, with the 13:00-14:00 window offering the largest saving versus peak at $53.42/MWh, all flagged low risk given the sustained negative pricing and 0 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity.
On notices, AEMO issued and then cancelled reclassifications of the Sheffield-George Town 220kV and Norwood-Scottsdale 110kV lines as credible contingency events due to lightning activity through yesterday afternoon and into the early hours of today — both have reverted to non-credible status with constraint sets revoked. No active network constraints are currently affecting TAS1 dispat