Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 30 June 2026
The spot price sits at $25.12/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, a sharp recovery from the extended low-price regime that dominated Tasmania through the daylight hours — prices held at or near $9.80/MWh from approximately 14:00 through to 03:30 AEST, with a brief dip to $1.18/MWh at 04:25 AEST. The overnight peak, by contrast, ran hard: prices climbed from $38.28/MWh at 07:10 AEST through to a session high of $146.22/MWh around 12:45 AEST, before retreating through the afternoon. The 24-hour price range has therefore been extreme — from sub-$2/MWh to nearly $150/MWh — reflecting Tasmania's characteristic hydro-dispatch volatility and exposure to Basslink flows.
Generation sits at 953.67 MW from hydro and 229.89 MW from wind, with gas OCGT at zero output. Total demand is 1,123.39 MW. The renewable penetration is 100% and carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh — consistent across every recorded interval over the past 24 hours. At 8.7°C with 90% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 9.3, mid-winter conditions are sustaining solid baseload demand, though the afternoon shoulder saw demand ease to a low of around 917 MW before recovering into the early evening. Wind potential remains modest at 0.8 on the current reading, with conditions expected to strengthen over coming days.
Predispatch forecasts signal a step-up through the rest of today. Prices are forecast to rise to $49.20/MWh at 07:00 AEST, hold in the low $50s through 08:00 AEST, then jump sharply to $88.24/MWh from approximately 08:30 AEST and sustain that level through to 10:30 AEST. A meaningful softening follows: prices are forecast to drop back below $40/MWh from 11:00 AEST and fall to near-zero — and briefly negative, reaching -$0.51/MWh — between roughly 14:30 and 15:00 AEST. This midday-to-afternoon negative pricing window aligns with low demand and surplus hydro dispatch, and represents the lowest-cost load opportunity of the day. Prices recover to around $10/MWh through the afternoon and evening.
No active market notices directly constrain the Tasmanian region today. The most operationally relevant nearby notice is the active Forecast LOR2 in South Australia for 03 July 2026 (07:30–11:00 AEST), where minimum available reserve of 625 MW sits well below the 758 MW requirement — AEMO is seeking a market response. While this does not directly bind TAS1, any increase in mainland demand for reserve or energy could tighten Basslink flow headroom. Separately, a TAS-specific reclassification contingency notice (144334) was resolved on 25 June 2026, with the long-standing credible contingency reclassification for Woolnorth wind farm formally cancelled — removing constraint set F-T_GEN_RECL and modestly improving dispatch flexibility at that site.