Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 5 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $88.26/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking well above the overnight trough of near-zero prices (as low as $0.18/MWh around 12:45-13:00 AEST) but consistent with the morning demand ramp that has pushed total demand to 1,329 MW. Prices climbed sharply from $40.91/MWh at 06:15 to a peak of $103.41/MWh by 08:05 AEST as demand rose past 1,440 MW, before easing back through the afternoon. This overnight-to-morning swing of roughly $88/MWh reflects Tasmania's typical diurnal demand pattern rather than any supply constraint.
Generation mix remains hydro-dominant: hydro is contributing 1,143 MW and wind 78 MW, with gas OCGT sitting idle at 0 MW. This puts renewable penetration at 100% and carbon intensity at 0 tCO2/MWh, consistent throughout the past 24 hours per the carbon history data. Tasmania's grid score shows renewable penetration at 41.2% on the broader scoring index (reflecting a different weighting methodology), though the region's real-time generation is fully renewable this morning. Weather conditions show minimal solar potential (0%) given overcast skies and a cold 3.5°C start, with wind potential also low at 0.5%, meaning hydro is carrying the bulk of the load.
Predispatch forecasts point to firming prices through the day: $88.84/MWh by 07:00, rising to $106.72/MWh by 08:00, then easing toward $88-92/MWh into the early afternoon. A stronger evening peak is forecast, with prices climbing to $116.81/MWh by 18:00 and $121.16/MWh by 19:30 AEST, before moderating to $80-90/MWh range through the evening. Traders should note the low-price window between 12:30-16:30 AEST (predispatch showing $42-65/MWh), aligning with the load-shifting windows identified for tomorrow's low-carbon, low-cost operation.
On notices, Tasmania has no active market interventions or reserve conditions currently in effect. The two most recent TAS1-specific notices relate to lightning-driven reclassification and subsequent cancellation of credible contingency status for the Sheffield-George Town 220kV and Norwood-Scottsdale 110kV lines, both resolved as of