Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 7 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $116.08/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, up from an overnight trough of $86-89/MWh but well below this morning's 17:45-18:00 AEST peak that touched $171.58/MWh. Demand at 1,416 MW is climbing through the morning ramp, tracking the typical pattern seen over the past 24 hours where demand oscillated between 1,170 MW overnight lows and 1,580 MW evening peaks. The past day's price band of $86-171/MWh reflects Tasmania's tight hydro-dominated supply-demand balance responding to demand swings rather than fuel cost volatility.
Generation is almost entirely hydro, running at 1,569 MW against wind's modest 29 MW contribution and zero output from gas OCGT peaking plant. This mix gives Tasmania a carbon intensity of 0 tCO2/MWh at the current interval, with renewable penetration at 100%. Looking back across the past 24 hours, intensity briefly ticked up to 0.01-0.03 tCO2/MWh during a handful of intervals overnight and mid-morning when thermal plant likely provided marginal support, but the region has otherwise held at zero. Wind potential is negligible today at 0.2-0.3%, consistent with light 4.6 km/h winds and full cloud cover, meaning hydro dispatch is doing the vast majority of the work.
AEMO's predispatch forecast points to continued volatility through the evening peak, with prices expected to climb to $150.19/MWh by 22:00 AEST before easing back to $88-91/MWh overnight and into tomorrow's early morning trough. A secondary price spike to $146-158/MWh is forecast for tomorrow's 08:00-08:30 AEST morning peak, followed by a return to the high-$80s to low-$90s range through the rest of the day. The load window analysis flags the 15:00-16:00 AEST period tomorrow as the cheapest dispatch opportunity at an average $79/MWh, saving roughly $79/MWh versus this evening's peak, with zero carbon intensity throughout.
No active market notices are specific to Tasmania today beyond historical reclassification entries for the Sheffield-George Town and Norwood-Scottsdale transmission lines, both of which reverted to non-credible contingency status on 2-3 July following the end of lightning activity. No current network constra