Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 10 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $37.60/MWh at 06:25 AEST, down sharply from yesterday evening's peak above $140/MWh and well below the volatile $85-135/MWh band that persisted through Thursday evening's demand ramp. Demand currently reads 1,152 MW, tracking the typical overnight trough before the morning ramp. Overnight prices spent an extended period at or near zero — including several intervals of negative pricing down to -$1.16/MWh between 16:00 and 19:00 AEST — reflecting strong hydro and wind output well in excess of underlying demand.
Generation mix is running at 536.6 MW hydro and 215.2 MW wind, with GAS_OCGT at zero. This puts renewable penetration at 100% for the current interval, consistent with an unbroken run of 100% renewable dispatch intervals stretching back through the entire overnight period per the carbon history data. Carbon intensity reads 0 tCO2/MWh, and has held at zero continuously since 10:30 AEST yesterday. This is a structural feature of Tasmania's hydro-wind system, not a one-off — the state has posted zero carbon intensity for over 20 consecutive hours.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued soft pricing through the day: targets range from -$2.48/MWh (16:30 AEST) to a brief spike near $31/MWh around 08:00 and 09:00 AEST, before settling into negative-to-flat territory ($-1 to $0.80/MWh) for most of the afternoon and evening. The AEMO-identified low-cost windows — 02:00-07:00 AEST — offer average prices near -$1.20/MWh with zero carbon intensity, representing the best load-shifting opportunities today, each saving roughly $32/MWh versus peak. Weather supports this outlook: cold conditions (2.8°C, heating demand at 15.2) with only modest wind potential (2.1) keep hydro as the dominant balancing resource, while today's forecast wind potential improves to 3.9 by afternoon.
On notices, TAS1-specific contingency reclassifications around the Sheffield-George Town and Norwood-Scottsdale 110kV/220kV lines (lightning-related, issued 2 July) have all been cancelled with no active constraints currently in force for the region. No new TAS1-specific market notices have been issued in the past 24 hours; the