Regional Outlook — TAS1: Wednesday 8 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $116.78/MWh at 06:25 AEST, well down from the extreme volatility overnight and this morning, when prices spiked to a $17,049.64/MWh cap breach at 07:40 AEST during the 05:40-10:15 AEST window. That morning peak, driven by rising demand (reaching 1557 MW) into low wind conditions, saw prices sustained above $300-1200/MWh for nearly three hours before easing back through the afternoon. Demand currently sits at 1403 MW and climbing into the evening peak.
Generation mix is heavily hydro-based, with hydro contributing 1616.94 MW, wind adding 32.54 MW, and GAS_OCGT providing 29.81 MW of the total. Renewable penetration reads 98.22% in the latest carbon snapshot, though the daily average sits lower at 35.9% per the regional scorecard, reflecting the wide swings between periods of 100% renewable output (multiple half-hour intervals showed zero carbon intensity overnight) and gas-supported periods during this morning's price spike. Carbon intensity is currently 0.0115 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the low end of Tasmania's typical range given hydro's dominance.
Predispatch forecasts show another volatile evening ahead: prices are expected to climb to $228.63/MWh by 21:00 AEST, peaking near $429.55/MWh at 22:30 AEST, before easing into low-$100s overnight. A second, sharper peak is forecast for tomorrow morning, with prices reaching $296.23/MWh by 08:00 AEST and holding in the $260-290/MWh band through midday on 9 July, consistent with a repeat of today's morning demand-driven tightness. Load-shifting windows show the lowest-cost, lowest-carbon period is 04:00-05:00 AEST tomorrow, averaging $96.28/MWh with zero carbon intensity, offering a $333/MWh saving versus this evening's peak.
On notices, Tasmania-specific items are limited to line contingency reclassifications from early July (Sheffield-George Town and Norwood-Scottsdale circuits), both since cancelled and reverted to non-credible status following clearance of lightning risk. No active LOR conditions or interventions are currently declared for TAS1. Weather remains cold with heating demand at 14.8 and minim