Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 12 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at -$1.19/MWh at 06:25 AEST, deep in negative territory as wind and hydro output outpaces overnight demand of 1160 MW. The region has spent most of the past 24 hours oscillating between roughly -$7/MWh and $55/MWh, with a brief early-morning spike to $88.26/MWh around 11:10 and 11:30 (07:10-07:30 AEST) when demand peaked near 1290 MW during the morning ramp. Prices have since retreated sharply, printing negative across the 17:00-20:00 AEST window as evening demand climbs back toward 1160 MW without matching price pressure — a pattern consistent with strong wind availability offsetting the ramp.
Generation is currently split between wind (528 MW) and hydro (489 MW), with gas OCGT sitting idle at 0 MW. This gives Tasmania 100% renewable generation at this interval and a carbon intensity of 0 tCO2/MWh, matching the flat-zero readings seen through most of the past 24 hours. Intensity did lift into the 0.05-0.14 tCO2/MWh range during the 13:00-19:00 AEST period (renewable share dipping to 83-85%) as gas plant contribution likely firmed the afternoon trough, before falling back to zero this evening as wind and hydro output rebuilt.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding near flat to slightly negative through the day: -$10.86/MWh at 07:00, easing toward $0/MWh by 08:00-08:30, then hovering between -$1 and $0.20/MWh out to 04:00 AEST tomorrow. No material price spikes are forecast in the current predispatch run, and the load window screen flags the 07:00-08:00 AEST period as the best low-cost, low-carbon window today (avg -$6.24/MWh, saving $6.42/MWh versus peak). Weather supports this outlook — wind potential sits at 8-9% today with light breezes (17.9 km/h current), while solar contributes negligibly (cloud cover 64-80%) given Tasmania's winter conditions and 6.7°C temperature.
On notices, AEMO's Murraylink control system is unavailable from 05:35 AEST until further notice, with constraint set I-CTRL_ISSUE_ML now active — relevant for traders tracking Basslink/Murraylink inter