Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 14 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $69.60/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, tracking near the middle of an extremely volatile 24-hour band that has ranged from -$13/MWh overnight troughs to briefly spiking above $88/MWh around 16:15-16:25 AEST. Demand is currently 1,097 MW and climbing through the morning ramp, having bottomed near 880-930 MW overnight. The region has seen repeated swings between near-zero and sub-zero pricing during high-hydro, low-demand overnight periods, and $60-90/MWh bands during the morning and evening peaks — a pattern consistent with hydro dispatch flexibility rather than tight supply.
Generation mix is currently led by hydro at 991 MW, wind contributing 463 MW, and gas OCGT filling in at 141 MW, putting renewables at 91.2% of generation with a carbon intensity of 0.0573 tCO2/MWh. This is broadly consistent with the past 24 hours, where renewable penetration has oscillated between 100% (multiple periods overnight and mid-morning showing zero carbon intensity) and lows near 84-86% during Tuesday's morning ramp, when gas peaking capacity was called on to meet demand. Wind potential today is modest at 2.5 (current) easing to an average of 1.3 for the day, with heavy cloud cover (97%) suppressing any solar contribution — Tasmania's generation stack remains almost entirely hydro-and-wind-driven regardless.
Predispatch forecasts show a significant price escalation ahead: prices are expected to ease slightly through the evening peak (forecast $72-79/MWh into the 21:00-22:00 AEST window tonight), then soften overnight into a low near $3-20/MWh around 05:00-07:00 AEST tomorrow, before spiking sharply from the 09:00 AEST period, with forecasts reaching $129/MWh at 09:00, climbing to a peak of $248.87/MWh at 11:00 AEST tomorrow. This reflects an anticipated tightening in the morning block, likely tied to demand ramp combined with reduced wind output. Traders should note the pre-dawn low-price window (05:00-08:00 AEST) as a high-value load-shifting opportunity, offering savings of up to $237/MWh versus peak pricing, though the 05:00-06:00 slot car