Commodity Demand — QLD1: Wednesday 15 July 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $128.73/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 7,195 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. This continues an evening peak pattern that saw demand hit a 24-hour high of 8,187 MW at 08:20 AEST yesterday, dragging prices to $128.94/MWh — confirming the region's tight coupling between demand and price above the 7,000 MW threshold. Overnight demand troughed near 4,080 MW between 02:00-03:00 AEST, coinciding with prices collapsing to near-zero and briefly negative (-$1.31/MWh at 00:35), reflecting minimal-demand periods where coal and wind output outpaced load.
The current 128.73/128.73 price-demand pair reflects a steep price-demand curve in QLD1: every 1,000 MW of demand growth above 6,000 MW is adding roughly $15-25/MWh, evident in the climb from $65.93/MWh at 5,810 MW to $128.73/MWh at 7,195-8,187 MW range across the morning shoulder. This is consistent with generator bidding behaviour as black coal (5,725 MW currently) and gas peaking plant are dispatched further up the merit order to meet load, with battery storage (302 MW) providing marginal support at the margin.
Forecast data points to a further price rise this evening, with the 21:00-21:30 AEST target period priced at $141.73/MWh — the daily peak — before falling sharply overnight to sub-$25/MWh by 23:00 and near-zero through 01:00-04:00 AEST. Demand-side risk today is elevated: AEMO issued and then cancelled a market intervention direction in QLD1 yesterday (14:10 AEST), including a direction to disconnect Lilyvale Solar Farm, indicating the network was managing a constraint event during the midday period — a reminder that solar curtailment risk remains live during high-generation, lower-demand windows even in winter.
Today's demand trajectory should track the recent pattern: a moderate morning peak near 8,000-8,200 MW (07:00-09:00 AEST), a midday trough as commercial load eases (6,200-6,800 MW), then a stronger evening peak (18:00-21:00 AEST) approaching 7,000-7,300 MW as heating load builds with the current 11.8°C temperature and cooling demand negligible.