Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 10 July 2026
Queensland demand sits at 6,178 MW as of 06:25 AEST, with spot price at $87.73/MWh — down from the overnight evening peak but still elevated relative to the current price forecast track. The data shows tight demand-price coupling today: demand cleared 7,780 MW near 18:20-18:20 UTC (04:00-04:20 AEST local peak) and pushed price to $128.51/MWh, while the subsequent demand pullback to the low 6,000s MW range through the afternoon saw prices ease back into the $70-90/MWh band. This is a classic morning peak pattern, with demand climbing from an overnight low near 5,270 MW (04:10 UTC / 14:10 AEST previous cycle) up through a steep ramp that added over 2,500 MW in roughly three hours, dragging price up more than $70/MWh over the same window.
The forecast trajectory points to a second demand-driven price lift later today. AEMO's forward curve shows prices easing to single digits and even briefly negative through the 10:30-15:00 AEST overnight trough (forecast $-1.92 to $11.82/MWh across several half-hour blocks), consistent with minimal demand and a well-supplied system. But the curve then re-steepens sharply from 16:30 AEST, climbing from $40/MWh to $85-95/MWh by 17:00-18:00 AEST, and continuing to build toward a forecast peak near $104.81/MWh around 20:30 AEST. This mirrors today's morning pattern and signals the evening demand ramp — likely driven by the cold outlook (9.8°C current temperature, heating demand at 8.2) — will again be the key price driver, with the tightest pricing expected in the 19:00-21:00 AEST window.
Generation mix context reinforces the demand-price relationship: black coal is supplying 5,764 MW of the current mix, with gas OCGT (152 MW) and batteries (139 MW) providing peaking support as demand climbs. Renewable penetration has fallen to 8.23% currently, down from over 35% in the overnight trough, reflecting the diurnal solar cycle rather than any operational change — this correlates with the higher carbon intensity reading of 0.8022 tCO2/MWh during today's demand ramp versus 0.55-0.62 tCO2/MWh overnight. No demand-side notices (load shedding, LOR declarations, or directions)