Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 11 July 2026
Queensland demand sits at 5,894 MW at 6:25am AEST, with spot price at $60.74/MWh — down sharply from the $89-99/MWh band that prevailed through yesterday evening's peak near 6,400 MW. The overnight trough saw demand fall to a low of 4,097 MW around 1:20am, dragging prices into single digits and briefly negative territory, confirming QLD1's typically tight demand-price coupling: every ~500 MW swing this cycle has moved price by $30-50/MWh.
The critical feature today is the morning ramp. Demand is currently climbing off the overnight low and heading into the winter morning peak — yesterday's equivalent ramp saw demand surge from ~4,200 MW at 1am to over 7,390 MW by 8:00am, pushing prices to $80-99/MWh as heating load and low solar output (current solar potential reads near zero at this hour, with cloud cover at 9% but temperature only 11°C) forced gas peakers and coal online. Expect a similar trajectory this morning, with AEMO's own forecast curve showing forecast RRP climbing from $71.86/MWh at 9pm through a second evening peak, but more relevantly the pre-dawn forecast today shows prices diving to -$5 to -$6/MWh between 2am-6am tomorrow as demand troughs again — reinforcing the low-demand, negative-price pattern typical of QLD1 winter overnight periods.
Peak demand periods today will mirror yesterday: a morning shoulder peak (7:00-9:00am) near 7,300-7,400 MW pushing prices to $78-93/MWh, followed by a midday plateau around 6,300-6,900 MW ($65-78/MWh) as rooftop solar offsets some grid demand, then an evening peak forming from 5:30pm as solar drops off, historically reaching 6,300-6,700 MW and $85-99/MWh by 9:00-9:30pm AEST. Generation mix at 8:30pm showed black coal supplying 5,196 MW (79% of the 6,917 MW total), with gas OCGT (132 MW) and battery (31 MW) providing peaking support — renewable penetration at 9.96% and carbon intensity at 0.787 tCO2/MWh reflect the low-wind (419 MW), near-zero solar evening conditions. No demand-side notices (load shedding, directions