Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 4 July 2026

Queensland demand sits at 5,872 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $72.31/MWh — down from an overnight morning peak of $101.79/MWh recorded at 22:10 UTC (08:10 AEST) when demand reached 7,157 MW. The data shows a textbook demand-price relationship: overnight troughs saw demand fall to 3,650-3,900 MW between 12:30-13:00 AEST, dragging prices into negative territory (-$7.01/MWh at the lowest point) as low-cost baseload and wind (1,069 MW) outpaced minimum demand. As demand climbed through the morning ramp from ~3,900 MW to over 7,000 MW between 13:00-17:30 AEST, prices tracked upward in near-lockstep, peaking above $100/MWh during the 6,700-7,200 MW demand band.

The forecast trajectory points to a continued morning peak persisting through the 08:00-09:30 AEST window, with forecast RRP holding near $90-96/MWh — consistent with demand likely to remain elevated above 6,500 MW given cold overnight temperatures (10.7°C, heating demand at 7.3 on the index) driving morning heating load. From late morning, forecast prices ease progressively: $86-90/MWh through midday, dropping to $64.55/MWh by 14:00 AEST and continuing to fall toward $44.30/MWh by 18:00 AEST as afternoon demand moderates and solar potential (modest today at 3.6 average, cloud cover 68%) offers limited offset. Overnight, prices are forecast to collapse again toward zero or negative by 23:00-05:00 AEST as demand retreats below 4,000 MW, mirroring last night's pattern.

Generation mix at the last snapshot shows black coal supplying 5,120 MW (the dominant source), wind contributing 1,069 MW, hydro 111 MW, gas OCGT 133 MW and battery just 2.65 MW — with renewable penetration at 18.4% and carbon intensity at 0.714 tCO2/MWh, both reflecting the current low-wind, low-solar conditions. Demand-side risk factors include the reclassified credible contingency on the Calliope River 4412 132kV circuit breaker (active since 04/07 15:35 AEST, cause unknown), which traders should monitor for potential dispatch const