Commodity Demand — QLD1: Monday 29 June 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $93.89/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 6,636 MW — well off the session peak but still elevated on winter evening load. The price-demand relationship through today's data is unambiguous: when demand pushed above 7,900 MW during the 07:30–09:00 AEST morning peak, prices locked in a sustained band of $119.99–$121.11/MWh. As demand pulled back through the mid-morning and afternoon — falling to a trough of around 5,470 MW between 17:00 and 17:15 AEST — prices compressed into the $76–$83/MWh range. The current evening ramp is tracking that same pattern in reverse, with demand climbing from ~5,470 MW at 17:00 AEST back toward 6,636 MW now, dragging prices upward in step.
The near-term forecast sharpens the outlook considerably. Prices are forecast to lift to $98.17/MWh at 07:00 AEST and $110.35/MWh at 07:30 AEST before easing back to the $76.60/MWh floor level through the overnight trough. The morning ramp then reasserts strongly: forecasts show $96.80/MWh by 10:30 AEST, $99.22/MWh by 11:00 AEST, and a daily peak of $130.14/MWh at 15:30 AEST — consistent with demand again pressing toward the 7,500–7,900 MW range seen this morning. The $60–$70/MWh window between approximately 10:00 and 13:00 AEST (07:00–10:00 UTC) represents today's lowest-cost load opportunity, with prices forecast to trough near $56/MWh at 02:00 AEST tomorrow.
Current generation mix shows black coal carrying 4,932 MW, wind contributing 1,828 MW, gas OCGT at 500 MW, battery discharge at 315 MW, and hydro at 115 MW. Wind at 1,828 MW is providing meaningful evening support, which is reflected in prices remaining below the $100–$120/MWh range seen this morning when wind output was comparably lower relative to the higher demand load. Carbon intensity stands at 0.6067 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 29.4% — consistent with the evening demand profile where solar is absent and wind is the sole variable renewable contributor. Weather conditions are typical winter: 13.1°C with a heating demand index of 4.9 and negligible wind potential at 0.2, which limits any upside wind surprise overnight.
The key demand-side watch for today's trading session is the morning ramp between 04:30 and 09:30 AEST. The data pattern is consistent: every increment of demand above approximately 7,000 MW correlates with prices exceeding $100/MWh, and above 7,500 MW prices consolidate at $119–$121/MWh. With a forecast peak of $130.14/MWh at 15:30 AEST, dispatchers should expect the 7,500 MW threshold to be tested again around that window. Batteries are currently discharging at 315 MW into tonight's demand ramp; charging opportunities concentrate in the $69–