Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 27 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $72.50/MWh with demand at 5,792 MW as of 06:30 AEST this Sunday morning. That demand level sits well below the day's peak recorded during the morning period — the data trace shows demand climbed from a trough of approximately 4,580 MW in the early hours to a peak of 7,463 MW at 17:45 AEST, with prices tracking tightly: the $43–68/MWh band during the overnight trough gave way to $106–130/MWh as demand surged through the 6,000–7,400 MW range from 15:00 to 17:45 AEST. That $87/MWh price range across a roughly 2,900 MW demand swing illustrates a clear marginal cost step-up once demand crosses approximately 6,300 MW, where sustained pricing above $109/MWh emerges. The price-demand relationship is notably non-linear: demand in the 5,500–6,100 MW range generally clears in the $65–85/MWh corridor, but the stack steepens sharply once the grid absorbs committed baseload and begins drawing on peaking capacity.

Today's Sunday demand profile is structurally lower than the weekday pattern reflected in the history, and the forecast price curve confirms this. Prices are expected to remain in the $54–79/MWh range through to 16:00 AEST, before the morning demand ramp — forecast to begin around 16:00–17:00 AEST (06:00–07:00 NEM time) — drives prices to $102–109/MWh between 17:00 and 20:00 AEST. The forecast sustains prices above $105/MWh from 17:00 through to 20:00 AEST before a gradual step-down toward $90/MWh by 21:00–22:00 AEST. That morning peak will again be the primary price risk window for the day. With Brisbane's current temperature at 11.4°C and a forecast maximum of 19.1°C, space heating demand drives the morning ramp rather than cooling load, compressing the peak into a narrower window than a summer profile.

Current generation sits at 5,792 MW total demand met by black coal (4,460 MW), wind (1,461 MW), gas OCGT (643 MW), battery (222 MW), hydro (111 MW), and negligible solar (0.14 MW). With renewables at 26% of the mix and carbon intensity at 0.6297 tCO₂/MWh, the overnight period — when wind's share was higher and demand lower — produced intensity readings as low as 0.505 tCO₂/MWh. As today's morning demand ramp draws on gas OCGT peaking capacity, intensity will move back toward the 0.63–0.64 tCO₂/MWh range seen during yesterday's peak. Flexibility-focused participants should note the lowest-cost windows are forecast at 11:00–12:00 AEST ($53.75–$54.63/MWh) and 12:30–13:30 AEST ($54.63/MWh), saving approximately $50–55/MWh against the morning peak. Note that the active SA LOR2 reserve notice for 30 June remains relevant for interconnector flows but