Commodity Demand — QLD1: Thursday 25 June 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $144.55/MWh with demand at 6,857 MW as of 06:30 AEST, tracking the evening ramp that has driven prices up from $109/MWh at 06:00 AEST. The demand-price relationship across today's data is pronounced: the overnight trough around 11:30 AEST saw demand bottom near 4,730 MW with spot prices as low as $6.73/MWh, while the morning peak between 17:00–18:45 AEST pushed demand above 7,800 MW and prices consistently above $160/MWh, touching $171.50/MWh on multiple intervals. The current demand level of 6,857 MW sits in a transitional zone where each incremental 100 MW of evening load growth is producing roughly $10–15/MWh of upward price movement, a pattern visible across the 06:00–06:30 AEST ramp.
Today's generation mix at 06:30 AEST comprises black coal at 4,940 MW, wind at 1,427 MW, gas OCGT at 480 MW, battery at 432 MW, and hydro at 152 MW, with solar contributing near zero in the absence of sunlight. The current carbon intensity is 0.627 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 27.1% — wind is providing meaningful volume but cloud cover today is forecast at 69%, which limits the solar contribution that typically softens midday pricing. That midday price suppression will be weaker than on a clear day, supporting the forecast's elevated daytime price trajectory.
The forward curve points to a significant pricing event ahead. Forecasts show prices stepping up to $144.55/MWh at 16:00 AEST, $177.29/MWh by 18:30 AEST, and peaking at $188.83/MWh through the 19:00–20:00 AEST window — consistent with the morning peak pattern observed today where demand cleared 7,500–7,900 MW. A sharp spike to $219.59/MWh is forecast for 08:00 AEST (22:00 UTC) tonight, likely reflecting a tight supply-demand balance as gas OCGT and battery capacity reaches dispatch limits under sustained high demand. The $223.83/MWh forecast at 23:00 AEST (13:00 UTC) is a second notable event, suggesting limited overnight relief before the early-morning demand trough reasserts itself around 01:00–03:00 AEST at $72–$88/MWh.
Two demand-side factors from market notices are relevant to today's outlook. AEMO increased the Very Fast Contingency FCAS cap in Queensland from 250 MW to 300 MW effective 25 June, which provides marginally greater frequency response headroom during peak dispatch intervals but does not directly alter energy pricing. Separately, the Directlink interconnector (N-Q-MNSP1) remains subject to a control unavailability constraint notice, which limits Queensland's ability to export to or import from New South Wales on that link, reducing flexibility in the QLD-NSW interchange during tight periods and adding marginal upward price pressure during the evening peak.