Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 21 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $116.27/MWh with demand at 6,538 MW as of 06:30 AEST, and both metrics are subject to an active AEMO price review under Clause 3.9.2B for the 06:15–06:35 intervals — confirmed prices may shift. The current reading caps a sharp evening ramp that began around 05:00 AEST (15:00 UTC) when demand was sitting near 5,770 MW at ~$63/MWh. From that base, demand climbed 770 MW in roughly 90 minutes as Brisbane temperatures sit at 13.9°C with a heating demand index of 4.1, driving residential evening load. The price response to that ramp has been non-linear: each 100 MW increment above 6,300 MW has pushed the spot rate up 8–12 $/MWh, reflecting tighter marginal capacity as black coal at 5,181 MW, gas OCGT at 786 MW, and battery discharge at 641 MW are all actively committed to meet load.

Today's demand trajectory shows the morning peak already passed its intraday high of 7,560 MW around 07:50–07:55 AEST, when prices reached $121.11/MWh. Demand then stepped down through the business day — falling from ~7,450 MW at 08:00 AEST to ~6,540 MW now — with prices tracking that descent from the low $120s into the high $80s–low $100s through the 09:00–12:00 AEST window, before firming again as the afternoon-evening transition arrives. The price-demand relationship across today's history is tight: sustained demand above 7,000 MW consistently produced prices of $103–$123/MWh, while the overnight trough of ~4,920 MW at 13:00–13:30 AEST (03:00–03:30 UTC) corresponded to a spot floor of $36–$45/MWh.

The forward price forecast signals another elevated period is imminent. Prices are forecast to remain around $113–$120/MWh through 07:00–08:00 AEST tomorrow (21:00–22:00 UTC tonight), before the overnight shoulder eases to $67–$76/MWh by 09:00–10:00 AEST. The critical risk window is the Monday morning workday ramp: forecasts show $130.83/MWh at 17:30 AEST, $132/MWh through 18:00–18:30 AEST, and a peak of $163.63/MWh at 19:30 AEST — materially above today's equivalent morning peak of $123.57/MWh. Monday's first working day demand profile, combined with forecast maximum temperature of 21°C and lower cloud cover (13% versus today's 77%), will bring solar generation into the morning mix but does not alter the afternoon-evening demand cliff.

One demand-side constraint worth noting: Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) remains unavailable for dispatch control under constraint set I-CTRL_ISSUE_TE, limiting Queensland's ability to flex export flows to NSW. This reduces inter-regional pressure relief during the coming peak window. The Tarong #4 non-conformance event at 13:25–13:45 AEST this morning (−33