Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 23 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $134.04/MWh with total demand at 7,019.7 MW as of 06:30 AEST, reflecting the tail end of this morning's evening ramp. The price-demand relationship across today's trading session has been pronounced: demand bottomed near 4,242 MW in the early hours (around 12:30 AEST) with prices collapsing to near-floor levels of $6.74/MWh, before the morning ramp drove demand through 7,400 MW by 17:00–18:00 AEST and prices pushed into the $127–$175/MWh range. The correlation is tight — each 1,000 MW step up in demand through the 6,000–7,500 MW band corresponds to roughly a $40–$60/MWh lift in the spot price, with brief spikes to $171–$183/MWh during constrained dispatch intervals this morning.

Demand is now rebuilding from today's afternoon trough of approximately 5,530 MW (09:00 AEST) and is tracking upward through the evening ramp. The forecast signals a material price escalation ahead: the next dispatch interval is forecast at $138.77/MWh (07:00 AEST), stepping to $190.53/MWh by 07:30 AEST before easing to $105.73/MWh at 08:00 AEST. The sharpest forward signal is the 09:00–09:30 AEST window, where forecast prices reach $250/MWh and $223.83/MWh respectively — the highest in today's outlook — consistent with demand approaching or exceeding the 7,400–7,900 MW range seen during this morning's peak. Prices then moderate through the $150–$178/MWh band across 10:00–11:30 AEST before returning to the $85–$110/MWh range through the midday-to-afternoon period.

Overnight demand structure tracked the classic winter weekday profile: a slow decline from ~6,940 MW at 06:30 AEST to the pre-dawn trough near 4,240–4,300 MW between 12:00–13:00 AEST, then a steady rebuild from 14:00 AEST onwards. The AEMO market notice confirming an increase in Queensland's Very Fast Contingency FCAS dispatch cap from 250 MW to 300 MW — effective 25 June — is relevant context for tomorrow's morning peak, as it expands the region's frequency response envelope during periods when islanding is considered credible, which can influence how tightly peaking plant is dispatched in high-demand intervals.

Demand-side flexibility is concentrated in the 13:30–16:30 AEST window (forecast $26–$40/MWh), which represents the best load-shift opportunity ahead of the evening peak. Loads currently committed to the 09:00–11:30 AEST window face the highest exposure at forecast prices of $163–$250/MWh. The overnight trough windows between 11:00 AEST and 14:30 AEST carry the lowest average prices of the coming cycle at $26–$40/MWh, saving $210–$217/MWh against the morning peak.