Commodity Demand — QLD1: Wednesday 24 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $93.83/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 6,973 MW and rising. The trajectory through this morning is straightforward: demand troughed overnight at roughly 4,330 MW with prices compressed into the $25–$43/MWh band, then climbed steadily through the pre-dawn ramp. The sharpest price response to demand occurred between 06:00 and 09:00 AEST, when demand surged from around 6,525 MW to a morning peak of 7,858 MW and prices tracked from $131/MWh up to a session high of $233/MWh at 17:20 AEST. That 1,300 MW demand increment drove a roughly $100/MWh price premium over the $130–$140/MWh base that characterises the 7,000–7,500 MW range. Price sensitivity is steepest above 7,500 MW — each incremental 100 MW in that band has been costing an additional $15–$25/MWh today.

Demand is now tracking back up from its midday trough of approximately 6,250 MW toward what will be a second evening peak. The price forecast confirms this: $144.55/MWh is expected at 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC), easing to $105.50/MWh by 07:30 AEST as demand rolls over, then declining through a $53–$70/MWh overnight trough from roughly 11:00–14:00 AEST. The morning peak window on 25 June is priced aggressively — forecasts show $188.83/MWh at 18:30 AEST and $190/MWh at 19:00 AEST, consistent with demand returning to the 7,400–7,800 MW range that drove equivalent pricing in today's morning session. Current weather conditions (11.1°C, cloud cover just 5%) are sustaining a heating demand index of 6.9 with negligible solar contribution, confirming the winter morning peak dynamic will repeat.

The generation mix at 06:00 AEST shows black coal at 4,837 MW, gas OCGT at 765 MW, wind at 1,463 MW, hydro at 139 MW, and battery at 38 MW, with solar contributing near zero at this hour. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6564 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 22.65% — up from the 18–19% range seen during the high-demand morning hours when wind's share was diluted by the larger total load. One market notice warrants attention: AEMO has confirmed that from 25 June 2026, the Very Fast Contingency FCAS cap in Queensland increases from 250 MW to 300 MW during periods where islanding is considered credible. This marginally improves FCAS cost efficiency in tail-risk scenarios but does not alter the energy price outlook.

For demand-side managers and flexible load operators, the optimal scheduling window sits between 11:00–14:00 AEST (01:00–04:00 UTC) where forecast prices range $53–$70/MWh — a saving of $120–$135/MWh against the morning and evening peaks. Any deferrable load above 1 MW that can shift into that window captures material value against both forecast peak periods