Commodity Demand — QLD1: Monday 22 June 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $121.11/MWh with demand at 6,862 MW as of 06:30 AEST, tracking the evening ramp that has been building since the overnight trough of around 4,461 MW at 12:50 AEST. The demand-price relationship today is sharp: prices remained sub-$1/MWh through the 11:35–14:30 AEST window when demand held in the 4,460–4,560 MW range, then accelerated hard once demand crossed approximately 5,950 MW around 15:30 AEST — clearing $55.75/MWh — and have held above $100/MWh since demand surpassed roughly 6,500 MW after 16:00 AEST. The evening ramp is now adding load at pace, with the 20:15–20:30 AEST window alone lifting demand from 6,739 MW to 6,863 MW while prices stepped from $119.99/MWh to $121.11/MWh. Battery storage is currently providing 1,106 MW into this peak, complemented by 473 MW wind, 302 MW hydro, and 298 MW gas OCGT alongside a black coal baseload of 5,254 MW.
The demand trajectory through tonight is the key price driver to watch. Forecasts have prices holding at $121.11–$127.69/MWh through the 07:00–08:00 AEST window as demand continues its evening peak, before easing to $91.92/MWh by 08:30 AEST and collapsing to $53.75/MWh by 09:00 AEST as demand rolls off toward the overnight trough. The deep trough pricing — sub-$1/MWh forecast from 13:00 through 15:00 AEST tomorrow and negative in the 02:00–05:00 AEST window — mirrors today's overnight price structure and reflects dispatch surplus at minimum demand. Heating demand is the primary load driver today at a heating index of 8 against a current temperature of 10°C, with near-zero cloud cover and negligible solar potential confirming no daytime solar suppression of demand.
Tomorrow's price profile carries a materially different shape from today's, with forecasts pointing to a pronounced mid-morning peak: $163.63/MWh at 19:00 AEST, rising to $188.83/MWh by 19:30 AEST, $223.83/MWh at 20:00 AEST, and a day-high of $224.74/MWh at 20:30 AEST. This is notably steeper than the $121–$131/MWh range seen during today's morning peak at equivalent demand levels, suggesting either tighter capacity margins or higher marginal unit offers are being reflected in NEMDE dispatch for tomorrow's business-day profile. Demand-side participants with flexibility should note the pronounced low-price window between 13:00 and 15:00 AEST tomorrow (forecast $0.01/MWh) as the optimal shift target, with the $224.74/MWh peak at 20:30 AEST representing a $224.73/MWh saving opportunity against that trough.