Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 28 June 2026
Queensland spot sits at **$69.70/MWh** with demand at **6,631 MW** as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of around 4,716 MW recorded near 11:05 AEST Sunday. The morning ramp is well underway, with demand having climbed roughly 1,900 MW from that low as residential and commercial heating loads come online in 11.4°C conditions. The price-demand relationship has been tight through this ramp: as demand surged through the 6,800–7,100 MW band between 16:30 and 18:30 AEST Sunday, prices pushed above $100/MWh, peaking at $108.73/MWh at 17:00 AEST when demand reached 7,296 MW. The current $69.70/MWh reflects demand still building toward that threshold range, with black coal carrying 4,537 MW, wind contributing 1,845 MW, gas OCGT at 598 MW, and battery dispatching 497 MW into the evening ramp.
The forecast profile signals a pronounced price escalation through this morning. Prices are projected to lift from $78.53/MWh at 07:00 AEST to $90.22/MWh by 16:00 AEST, then accelerate to a forecast peak of **$132.74/MWh at 18:30 AEST** — consistent with the 07:30–08:30 AEST band when winter morning demand in Queensland typically peaks above 7,500 MW. This mirrors Sunday's observed behaviour precisely: prices held above $80/MWh continuously from 16:35 to 19:00 AEST as demand sustained the 7,400–7,690 MW range. The OCGT and battery capacity currently in dispatch will be critical marginal resources as demand tests those levels again this morning; at 497 MW, the battery fleet is already heavily committed for the pre-peak ramp.
Overnight off-peak pricing offers a sharp contrast for flexible load operators. The cheapest window sits between 13:00 and 14:00 AEST tonight (03:00–04:00 UTC), where forecast prices fall to around **$38–40/MWh** as demand retreats below 5,000 MW and marginal cost plant backs off. Demand is forecast to bottom near that level before the pre-dawn ramp re-engages from approximately 14:30 AEST, with prices lifting back through $53.75/MWh to $69–70/MWh by 15:00 AEST. Industrial and large commercial loads with scheduling flexibility have a window of roughly 90 minutes at sub-$40/MWh before the daily cycle repeats. There are no Queensland-specific market notices affecting today's despatch, though AEMO's increase to the Very Fast Contingency FCAS cap in QLD from 250 MW to 300 MW (effective 25 June) marginally improves frequency response headroom during the high-demand morning period.