Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 26 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $102.88/MWh with demand at 6,056 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a marked retreat from today's winter morning peak of 7,928 MW at 18:00 AEST, where prices sustained a prolonged band of $165–$188/MWh. The price-demand relationship across today's data is sharp: demand above roughly 7,500 MW consistently produces prices above $160/MWh, while the current demand level of ~6,050 MW sits in a transitional zone where prices remain supported above $100/MWh but well clear of the elevated plateau seen during the morning peak. The day's intraday low of $55.93/MWh occurred at 14:10 AEST when demand troughed around 5,714–5,810 MW in the pre-dawn hours, illustrating a clear ~$120/MWh price differential between trough and peak demand conditions across the 24-hour cycle.

The overnight demand trajectory traced a textbook winter Saturday profile: demand held in the 5,700–5,900 MW range from roughly midnight to 04:00 AEST at prices of $65–$97/MWh, before climbing steeply through the morning ramp commencing around 15:30 AEST. Demand accelerated from 6,245 MW at 15:00 AEST to 7,928 MW by 18:00 AEST — a 1,683 MW rise in three hours — driving prices from $62/MWh to $174/MWh over the same window. The price response was non-linear: each incremental 300–400 MW of demand above 7,500 MW added disproportionate upward price pressure, with several intervals printing $183–$188/MWh as the grid absorbed peak load. A single spike to $223/MWh at 21:30 AEST when demand was 7,253 MW signals supply tightness beyond what the demand level alone would suggest, likely reflecting a brief dispatch constraint.

Demand is now rising again off the 06:30 AEST level of 6,056 MW. The forecast profile points to prices holding in the $103–$106/MWh range through 07:00–07:30 AEST before softening to $70–$73/MWh between 08:30–09:00 AEST as the overnight demand trough develops. The floor is forecast around $54–$55/MWh in the 10:30–12:30 AEST window. The next significant demand ramp is forecast to lift prices back above $120/MWh from 16:00 AEST, with the morning peak window of 17:30–19:30 AEST forecast at $156–$212/MWh — with the 09:30 AEST half-hour period forecast at $212/MWh representing the day's projected price apex as winter heating demand peaks. Today being a Saturday moderates the overall demand quantum relative to a weekday, but the winter temperature profile — maximum of 19.8°C, current 11.4°C with a heating demand index of 6.6 — ensures the evening ramp remains a material price risk.

Flexible load operators have a clear arbitrage window: the $54–$68/MWh overnight trough forecast between 10:30 AEST and 14:00 AEST offers