Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 30 June 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $101.58/MWh with demand at 6,552 MW as of 06:30 AEST, tracking the post-evening-peak wind-down that began around 05:00 AEST from an intraday high of 7,976 MW. The price-demand relationship across today's trading has been pronounced: when demand crested above 7,800 MW during the morning peak (approximately 15:00–18:00 AEST), prices held consistently in the $162–$175/MWh band, with the 06:30–07:30 AEST window delivering the session's tightest cluster of near-ceiling prints near $175/MWh. As demand retreated through the midday and afternoon periods into the 5,400–5,700 MW range, prices compressed to $69–$78/MWh — a clear demonstration of steep marginal cost curve behaviour as baseload capacity absorbs declining load without requiring higher-cost peaking plant. The overnight trough around 10:30–11:00 AEST (06:30 UTC) saw demand bottom near 5,418 MW and prices drop as low as $44.89/MWh, confirming substantial headroom in committed capacity at that load level.

The evening demand ramp now underway — demand has climbed roughly 1,100 MW over the past two hours from the afternoon trough — is driving the current price back above $100/MWh. The generation mix at 06:25 AEST shows black coal at 4,910 MW, wind at 1,071 MW, gas OCGT at 475 MW, hydro at 195 MW, and battery at 184 MW, with solar contributing zero at this hour. Grid carbon intensity is 0.6772 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 21.23% — notably lower than the 41% seen during overnight hours when demand was lower and the coal fleet's share of a smaller load was diluted by wind. A non-conformance notice for TARONG#2 (–40 MW, 18:10–18:20 AEST) and the active Greenbank 275 kV SVC outage with associated Q-GB_VC constraint set on the NSW1-QLD1 and Terranora interconnectors are factors limiting transfer flexibility and adding marginal upward pressure to local prices.

Forward forecasts point to prices easing to $93.06/MWh at 07:00 AEST before a brief spike to $109.66/MWh at 07:30 AEST as the evening peak consolidates, then a sustained step-down through the overnight period — $70/MWh by 09:00 AEST, $40/MWh by 09:30 AEST, and a floor near $19.86–$26.23/MWh between 10:00 AEST and 13:00 AEST (00:00–03:00 UTC). The morning demand rebuild from approximately 17:00 AEST drives a price recovery back to the $102–$110/MWh range for the working-day peak window. Today's maximum temperature of 21.5°C with clearing cloud cover (26% average) will support modest solar generation during business hours, which the history shows consistently softened midday prices into the $55–$90/MWh range — that pattern is expected to repeat today given the improved solar potential (15