Commodity Demand — QLD1: Thursday 2 July 2026

Queensland demand sits at 6,515 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $88.99/MWh — up from the overnight trough of $44.89/MWh recorded around 15:20-17:10 yesterday afternoon. The current settlement continues a demand ramp that began post-2am, and price sensitivity through the past 24 hours confirms QLD1's tight coupling between load and RRP: every push above 7,000 MW yesterday drove prices into the $100-129/MWh range, peaking at $128.91/MWh when demand hit 7,451 MW at 17:00 AEST (the winter evening peak). Conversely, troughs below 5,500 MW overnight saw prices compress into the $45-70/MWh band.

AEMO's forecast trajectory for today points to a classic winter demand curve. Overnight prices are forecast to fall sharply, with the 11:00-12:00 AEST window forecast at just $21.87-22.96/MWh as demand bottoms out in the early hours. From there, the morning ramp lifts forecast prices to $88-105/MWh by 17:00-20:00 AEST as the pre-dawn heating load builds — consistent with today's cold start (14.5°C, heating demand index 3.5, zero solar potential under 100% cloud cover). The forecast profile shows sustained $95-105/MWh pricing through the 18:00-20:00 AEST band, before easing into the afternoon shoulder as temperatures climb toward a forecast max of 24.8°C.

The evening peak remains the key risk window. Historical settlement data shows QLD1 demand climbing from ~6,900 MW at 16:30 AEST to over 7,700 MW by 17:45-18:00 AEST yesterday, coinciding with the steepest price spikes above $120/MWh. With today's cloud cover suppressing solar contribution early and heating load elevated, expect a similar ramp profile — traders should watch the 16:00-19:00 AEST window for repeat volatility, particularly if black coal (currently 5,142 MW) or gas peaking units face any dispatch constraints. No specific QLD demand-side notices are active today; the relevant AEMO notices concern SA voltage directions and TAS/VIC contingency reclassifications, none of which directly constrain QLD1 supply.