Commodity Demand — QLD1: Thursday 9 July 2026

Queensland demand sits at 6,728 MW at 6:25am AEST, with spot price at $105.53/MWh, up from an overnight trough near 4,500 MW and sub-$30/MWh around 9-10am AEST yesterday. The data shows tight price-demand coupling through the morning ramp: as demand climbed from ~4,600 MW (overnight low around 11am-12pm AEST) through the low-6,000s, prices tracked below $70/MWh, then accelerated sharply once demand pushed past 7,000 MW — peaking at $155.02/MWh when demand hit 7,276 MW at 7:00am AEST. This non-linear response is characteristic of QLD's morning peak: each additional ~100 MW above 7,000 MW is adding $10-15/MWh as higher-cost gas peaking plant and battery discharge are dispatched to cover the ramp.

The demand trajectory today follows a typical winter shape: overnight minimum near 4,500-4,700 MW (around 10:30-11:00am AEST), a steep morning ramp from 5:00am AEST as heating load and early commercial demand build, peaking in the 7,300-7,800 MW range through the 7:00am-9:00am AEST window, then easing into a shoulder trough near 5,600-6,200 MW mid-afternoon before a secondary evening rise as demand climbs back toward 6,300-6,700 MW by 8:00pm AEST. AEMO's forecast curve mirrors this pattern, projecting the overnight trough to $40/MWh through the 3:00-5:00am AEST window before ramping to $105-140/MWh across the 6:30am-9:30am AEST period, consistent with today's observed morning peak dynamics.

Price sensitivity is asymmetric: on the way down from the 8:00am peak (7,785 MW, $146.12/MWh), prices eased faster than demand declined, dropping to the $80-90/MWh band by early afternoon as demand fell to 5,900-6,300 MW, while battery output (375 MW) and hydro (146 MW) provided flexible response to smooth the shoulder period. Black coal remains the dominant baseload contributor at 5,973 MW, with wind contributing 1,453 MW; combined renewable penetration sits at 24.45% and carbon intensity at 0.6612 tCO2/MWh. No specific demand-side notices affect QLD