Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 12 July 2026
Queensland demand sits at 6,982 MW as of 06:25 AEST, up sharply from the 4,000-4,300 MW overnight trough recorded between 10:30 AEST and 14:30 AEST last night. Spot price currently reads $72.50/MWh, tracking the steep morning ramp that has lifted demand by roughly 2,900 MW since 04:00 AEST. This morning's cold snap (10.8°C, heating demand index 7.2) is driving the load-up, with prices climbing from negative territory below -$7/MWh in the early hours to the low $70s/MWh as demand crossed 6,000 MW around 06:00 AEST.
The price-demand relationship today is highly non-linear. Below roughly 5,500 MW overnight, prices sat in negative-to-single-digit territory, reflecting minimal-cost baseload and high wind output. Once demand pushed past 6,300 MW around 06:30 AEST, prices jumped to $81.23/MWh, and the region has held in a $65-80/MWh band through the morning as demand pushed toward today's peak near 7,460 MW at 07:50 AEST. This threshold behaviour points to thinner marginal supply above 6,500-7,000 MW, likely gas peaking plant (OCGT currently contributing 132 MW) stepping in as coal and hydro reach dispatch limits.
AEMO's five-minute forecast points to a much sharper afternoon and evening peak. Forecast RRP climbs to $93.21/MWh by 08:00 AEST target time, then $103.83/MWh around 09:00-09:30 AEST target — the highest forecast prices for the day — before easing to the $50-70/MWh range from midday through evening. This trajectory implies demand is expected to extend beyond current 7,460 MW levels into the mid-morning window, consistent with the daily outlook showing a cool start (min 10.9°C) warming to 20.4°C, with only modest solar potential (26.1% average) to offset load growth. Traders should note the sharp forecast price step between 07:00 and 09:00 AEST target times — a roughly $25/MWh jump in under two hours — signalling tight reserve margins during that window before prices retreat into the afternoon.
No load-shedding directions or non-conformance events are currently active in QLD1 specifically; the only regional notice is a non-credible contingency cancellation for the Calliope River circ