Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 14 July 2026
Queensland demand sits at 7,227 MW as at 06:25 AEST, with spot price at $78.70/MWh — tracking the morning ramp as the region moves through its winter peak-demand window. Demand has climbed sharply from an overnight low of 4,116 MW (around 14:40 AEST on the settlement clock, in the low-demand trough), a swing of over 3,100 MW that has pulled price from near-zero and negative territory (-$2.91/MWh at the trough) up through the $70-90/MWh band as generators re-enter the stack. Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced above 7,000 MW: intervals near 7,800 MW saw prices holding in the mid-$70s to low-$80s, while the last 24-hour peak of 7,774 MW briefly pushed price to $86/MWh before easing.
The demand trajectory today points to a classic dual-peak winter shape. Morning demand is currently building toward a plateau near 7,800-7,950 MW (last seen 08:00-08:30 AEST), which historically holds prices in the $70-85/MWh range. AEMO's forecast curve shows a much sharper evening escalation, with forecast RRP climbing from $80/MWh at 07:00 AEST to a forecast peak of $260.52/MWh around 21:00 AEST as demand is expected to compound with reduced solar output — consistent with cold morning temperatures (9.1°C, heating demand at 8.9) and low solar potential (0% cloud-free but minimal generation contribution at this hour). Forecast prices between 19:00-22:00 AEST cluster in the $180-260/MWh band, the tightest and highest-risk window today, before easing back to $70-100/MWh overnight.
Generation mix at the 20:00 UTC (06:00 AEST) snapshot shows black coal supplying 5,706 MW, wind at 1,503 MW, hydro 146 MW, gas OCGT 132 MW and battery 88 MW — renewable penetration is 22.94% with carbon intensity at 0.674 tCO2/MWh, both consistent with the low-wind, pre-dawn profile (wind potential just 2.3%). No load-shedding, reserve notices or non-conformance events are active in QLD today; the only reserve-related notice affects TAS1, with no direct QLD demand-side constraints reported. Traders should watch the 19:00-22:00