Commodity Demand — TAS1: Monday 13 July 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $0.12/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 1,134 MW, a level that masks an extremely volatile overnight session where price swung from -$15.74/MWh to a $23,200/MWh spike within a 12-hour window. That 06:20 spike coincided with demand climbing through 1,278 MW, confirming Tasmania's price curve is highly non-linear above the 1,300 MW mark — the region traded near-zero or negative for most of the 900-1,100 MW range but repeatedly punched through $200-300/MWh whenever demand pushed past 1,300 MW between 06:35 and 08:00 AEST, the winter morning ramp.

Demand has since eased back to 1,134 MW as the morning peak passes, and the forecast trajectory points to a second, more moderate ramp this evening: AEMO's forecast curve shows prices lifting from near-zero at 06:00-06:30 AEST tomorrow to $72-83/MWh through the 08:00-11:00 AEST window, before easing back to $25-30/MWh by late afternoon. This mirrors today's pattern — the 1,300+ MW morning peak drove sustained triple-digit pricing (100.24-265.53/MWh from 06:45-09:45 AEST), while the midday demand trough below 1,000 MW (reached ~13:00-14:30 AEST) saw prices flatline at or below zero, including several negative prints down to -$0.37/MWh.

Hydro is carrying 994.5 MW of the current 1,500 MW generation mix, with wind contributing 381 MW and gas OCGT just 124.8 MW, keeping carbon intensity low at 0.0581 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration at 91.06%. Notably, an actual LOR1 (Lack of Reserve Level 1) condition was declared for TAS1 from 14:00-14:30 AEST on 13 July, with capacity reserve at 541 MW against a 568 MW requirement — a reminder that despite hydro's flexibility, reserve margins tightened during the demand ramp and remain a factor traders should watch if today's evening peak tracks similarly.

Given the repeated pattern of sharp price excursions whenever demand crosses ~1,300 MW, today's price outlook hinges on whether the evening ramp (typically 17:00-20:00 AEST) reaches