Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 9 July 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $119.13/MWh at 06:25 AEST as demand climbs to 1,376 MW, part of the steep morning ramp typical of winter weekday mornings. Demand has risen from an overnight low near 1,192 MW (around 13:00-14:00 AEST/03:00-04:00 local settlement) to current levels, tracking the region's cold snap with heating demand at 15.1 and a temperature of 2.9°C. The price-demand relationship is highly non-linear here: overnight troughs below 1,220 MW held prices in the $60-95/MWh band, while last evening's peak above 1,570 MW pushed prices to $230-245/MWh repeatedly, a swing of roughly 150-170 $/MWh for a 350 MW demand shift. This reflects Tasmania's thin reserve margin above hydro baseload before gas peaking (OCGT) is dispatched at the margin.
The forecast trajectory points to a firming morning peak, with AEMO's 30-minute forecasts showing prices lifting to $152-172/MWh through the 21:00-22:30 UTC window (07:00-08:30 AEST), consistent with the observed pattern of demand pushing past 1,450-1,480 MW during the 07:00-09:00 AEST period. Forecast prices then ease steadily through the day, dropping into the $85-110/MWh band from late morning into the afternoon as demand is expected to fall back below 1,300 MW, before a sharp collapse forecast for the evening off-peak — prices as low as $10-37/MWh are flagged for the 16:00-18:00 UTC window (02:00-04:00 AEST tomorrow), aligning with the identified low-price load-shift windows offering up to $162/MWh in savings versus today's peak.
No demand-side constraints or directions specific to Tasmania are currently active in market notices; the only TAS1-related contingency reclassifications (Sheffield-George Town and Norwood-Scottsdale lines) were resolved on 2-3 July and are not affecting current dispatch. Generation mix remains hydro-dominated (1,590 MW) with wind at 76 MW and a small 30 MW gas OCGT contribution, keeping carbon intensity negligible at 0.0114 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration at 98.24%. Price volatility today is therefore a function of demand-driven merit-order