Commodity Demand — TAS1: Wednesday 8 July 2026

Tasmania spot price sits at $116.78/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 1403 MW, tracking through the tail of the morning ramp. Overnight demand behaviour shows extreme price sensitivity at the margin: between 09:35 and 09:45 AEST demand held near 1510-1524 MW while prices spiked from $9,449.78/MWh to $17,049.64/MWh, before easing back to the $1,209/MWh band as demand eased below 1500 MW. This confirms Tasmania's price curve is steep once demand pushes past roughly 1500 MW — small MW increments at that margin are producing four-figure and five-figure price responses, consistent with hydro dispatch constraints or bidding behaviour at the top of the stack rather than gas-fired marginal cost alone (GAS_OCGT is contributing just 29.81 MW against 1616.94 MW of hydro in the current mix).

Demand has been on a declining trajectory since the overnight peak of 1596.56 MW at 04:15 AEST (UTC-adjusted), falling to a low near 1181-1200 MW through the 04:15-05:25 AEST window before rebuilding into the current 06:25 AEST reading of 1403 MW. This morning ramp pattern — trough near dawn, climb into the 1500s during the 06:00-11:00 AEST window — is the key driver of today's price volatility, with the 09:00-10:00 AEST period producing the session's most extreme outcomes as demand held in the 1510-1540 MW band.

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to further price stress ahead: target prices lift to $228.63/MWh by 07:00 AEST, $273-429/MWh through 08:00-08:30 AEST, and a second elevated band of $274-296/MWh persisting from 07:00 through to 12:30 AEST tomorrow's equivalent window, before easing to sub-$100/MWh levels from 14:00 AEST onward as demand tapers into the afternoon trough. The load-window analysis flags the 04:00-07:00 AEST band as the cheapest dispatch window today, with prices in the $96-129/MWh range and savings of $300-333/MWh versus peak — useful reference for flexible load scheduling given the volatility clustering later in the morning.

No demand-side directions or load-shedding notices are active for Tasmania specifically; the reclassified TAS1