Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 10 July 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $37.60/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 1,152 MW — well below the overnight peak of 1,548 MW recorded around 08:15 AEST (06:15 UTC) yesterday evening's peak period, when prices spiked as high as $145/MWh. The region has moved through a full pricing cycle in the past 24 hours: demand-driven volatility overnight (evening peak 1,500-1,550 MW pushing prices to $85-145/MWh, with one 5-minute spike to $450.32/MWh at 10:05 AEST), followed by a collapse into negative and near-zero pricing through the low-demand midday and afternoon window when demand troughed near 1,050-1,070 MW between roughly 02:00-05:00 AEST.
The demand-price relationship today is stark and mechanical: every 100-150 MW swing in Tasmanian demand is moving price by $50-100/MWh at the margins, reflecting a thin-supply, hydro-dominated system with limited marginal generators willing to move at low prices. Notably, generation is currently 100% renewable (536 MW hydro, 215 MW wind, zero gas), and carbon intensity has read 0 tCO2/MWh continuously since 00:30 AEST — hydro and wind are meeting all demand without thermal backup, which explains the willingness of price to fall to zero or negative during low-demand troughs when hydro output has nowhere to go.
AEMO's five-minute forecast trajectory points to prices holding near zero to slightly negative through the remainder of the morning and into early afternoon, with brief small positive excursions around 08:00 and 09:00 AEST (forecast $30-31/MWh) coinciding with modest demand upticks, before reverting negative again from midday through the evening. Cold conditions (2.8°C, heating demand index 15.2) support a firmer demand floor than typical winter troughs, but with 100% renewable supply and no gas dispatched, there's little to prevent price collapses whenever hydro/wind output outpaces demand. Traders should watch the 07:00-09:00 AEST window for the day's most likely positive pricing, with the load-shedding-favourable window between 02:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow flagged by AEMO's own optimisation as the cheapest, lowest-carbon period (avg -$1.20/MWh, saving $32/MW