Commodity Demand — TAS1: Saturday 11 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at -$0.45/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 1,027 MW, continuing an overnight pattern where prices have oscillated between roughly -$6/MWh and $44/MWh in lockstep with demand swings of just 100-150 MW either side of 1,000-1,350 MW. This tight price-demand coupling is characteristic of Tasmania's thin merit-order stack: hydro (320 MW) and wind (476 MW) are currently meeting 100% of demand with zero gas-fired OCGT running, so incremental demand is met by ramping hydro rather than starting thermal plant, keeping the market highly sensitive to small demand moves. The overnight low near 1,020-1,040 MW after midnight AEST tracked negative pricing as low as -$6.22/MWh, while the morning ramp to 1,320-1,360 MW between 18:00-19:00 AEST yesterday pushed prices into the $30-44/MWh band.
Today's demand trajectory points to a mild winter pattern rather than a sharp peak. AEMO's forecast has prices flat to negative through the morning (-$0.45 to -$0.40/MWh into the 07:00-09:00 AEST window), reflecting continued strong hydro-wind coverage against modest heating load — current temperature is 4.6°C with heating demand index at 13.4 and minimal solar contribution (0% potential). The standout signal is a forecast price spike to $88.26/MWh around 15:30-16:00 AEST, the only material departure from the otherwise subdued -$1 to +$2/MWh band expected across the day, suggesting a brief tightening in the hydro-wind balance or an interconnector constraint during that window rather than a sustained demand-driven peak.
For demand-side planning, the load-shifting windows confirm the pattern: the cheapest hours are 01:00-05:00 AEST (avg -$0.49 to $0.18/MWh, saving $88-91/MWh versus peak) and again 17:00-18:00 AEST (avg -$5.75/MWh, saving $94/MWh), while the 15:30-16:00 AEST spike is the period to avoid for any flexible load. No active AEMO notices currently affect Tasmania's network directly — the most recent TAS1 contingency reclassifications (Sheffield-George Town and Norwood-Scottsdale lines) were