Commodity Demand — TAS1: Sunday 12 July 2026

Tasmania demand sits at 1,160 MW as at 6:25am AEST, up sharply from the 1,000-1,050 MW range overnight, with spot price at -$1.19/MWh. The region has swung through a wide overnight band, from lows near -$14.83/MWh around 11:30pm to brief spikes above $88/MWh during ramp periods around 11:10pm and 1:30am, illustrating how thin margins in a hydro-wind system can produce sharp price swings even on modest demand shifts of 20-40 MW.

The overnight morning ramp (5:00am-9:00am) is the clearest demand-price relationship in today's data: as demand climbed from 1,098 MW at 5:00am to a peak of 1,309 MW at 7:05am, prices moved from near-zero into the $40-56/MWh band, holding around $50-55/MWh through the 8am-9:30am window as demand stayed above 1,270 MW. This confirms Tasmania's price sensitivity kicks in once demand pushes past roughly 1,250 MW, a threshold where hydro dispatch and wind output are fully absorbed and marginal units set higher prices. Demand has since eased back through the morning, dropping to 1,193-1,199 MW by 11:00am, and prices have correspondingly retreated to near $0/MWh and below.

For the rest of today, AEMO's forecast trajectory points to persistently low and even negative prices, with forecast RRP sitting between -$1.63/MWh and $0.18/MWh through to 6pm this evening. This aligns with generation mix data showing 100% renewable supply (489 MW hydro, 528 MW wind, zero gas) and a carbon intensity of 0 tCO2/MWh at the current interval, reflecting ample hydro storage and strong wind output relative to today's demand profile. Cool conditions (6.7°C, heating demand at 11.3) support continued moderate load through the day, but with wind potential adequate and no gas generation online, there's little price upside expected outside the early morning ramp window already observed.

On the notices front, the Murraylink control unavailability (constraint I-CTRL_ISSUE_ML, active since 5:35am) and the now-cancelled Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton 110kV lightning reclassification are grid security items rather than demand-side drivers, but the Murraylink constraint bears watching given its potential to affect