Commodity Demand — NSW1: Monday 13 July 2026

NSW demand sits at 9,022 MW as at 06:25 AEST, with spot price at $80.10/MWh — up sharply from the sub-$50/MWh range that prevailed through the overnight trough. The data shows clear demand-price coupling this morning: demand climbed from a low of roughly 6,900 MW around 03:00-05:15 AEST (when prices briefly went negative, touching -$5.58/MWh) to over 10,900 MW by 08:00-09:00 AEST, dragging price with it to peaks of $90-91/MWh. That morning ramp — nearly 4,000 MW added in nine trading intervals — is the single biggest price driver of the day so far, consistent with a cold 8.1°C morning driving heating demand (currently 9.9 on the heating index) with minimal solar offset.

The evening pattern from yesterday is instructive for today's trajectory: demand peaked near 9,990-10,020 MW around 21:00-21:40 AEST with prices holding near $81-99/MWh, before easing back toward 7,000-7,500 MW by 04:00-05:00 AEST as prices fell into single digits and briefly negative territory. AEMO's forecast curve points to a similar evening peak tonight, with forecast RRP climbing from $57.63/MWh at 23:00 AEST to $80-92/MWh through the 08:00-11:00 AEST window tomorrow morning, then easing to the $50-60/MWh band by mid-afternoon. This morning's build already tracks ahead of that curve, suggesting today's peak pricing window (07:00-09:00 AEST) may print at or above the $85-92/MWh forecast band given the observed 08:15-08:20 AEST prints of $89.94-90.18/MWh.

Generation mix at 20:00 AEST (overnight) showed black coal carrying 5,782 MW of NSW's load with wind at 1,495 MW, hydro 359 MW and battery 148 MW — renewable penetration at 25.92% and carbon intensity 0.6514 tCO2/MWh, both near the low end of the past 24 hours as evening demand peaked with minimal solar. No demand-side notices affecting NSW directly; a NON-CONFORMANCE flag on LDBESS1 (11 MW, 13:50-13:55 AEST yesterday) and negative settlement residue events on VIC-NSW and VIC-