Commodity Demand — NSW1: Thursday 9 July 2026

NSW spot price sits at $129.71/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 9,117 MW, up from an overnight low near 7,750 MW around 03:00-04:00 AEST. The morning ramp is the dominant feature of today's price action: as demand climbed from ~8,900 MW at 06:00 to a peak of 10,940 MW at 08:55 AEST, price surged from $105-110/MWh to a band of $146-186/MWh, touching $185.77/MWh at 07:00 AEST when demand crossed 10,100 MW. This confirms a steep price-demand gradient through the 10,000-11,000 MW band — each ~200 MW increment through the morning peak added roughly $10-20/MWh, consistent with black coal (6,421 MW) and hydro (891 MW) being pushed toward marginal capacity while wind contributes just 564 MW and solar remains negligible at 17 MW given 33% cloud cover and cold 9.9°C conditions driving heating demand (8.1 heating demand index).

Demand has since eased through the day, falling to a trough near 7,500-7,600 MW between 17:00-18:00 AEST before the current evening uplift back to 9,117 MW. This midday dip corresponded with price relief to the $94-125/MWh range through 12:00-16:00 AEST as the load moved off-peak. The evening ramp now underway mirrors the morning pattern on a smaller scale — demand has risen roughly 1,600 MW from the afternoon trough, lifting price from $103/MWh (14:00 AEST low) back to $129.71/MWh currently, with AEMO's own forecast showing this evening peak stretching to $169-180/MWh between 21:00-22:30 AEST as demand-driven tightness persists into the second daily peak.

Forecast price trajectory for the rest of today and into tomorrow shows the classic double-hump pattern: elevated pricing into the evening peak (forecast $169-180/MWh through 21:00-22:30 AEST), then declining through overnight trough pricing of $89-99/MWh between 01:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow, before the morning ramp resumes with forecast pricing back above $130-150/MWh by 08:30-09:30 AEST tomorrow. Load-shifting windows identified for tomorrow's overnight trough (02:00-06:00 AEST) offer savings of $