Commodity Demand — NSW1: Saturday 11 July 2026
NSW spot price sits at $59.97/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 7,410 MW — down sharply from the overnight peak of 10,232 MW recorded around 18:00-18:10 (07:50-08:10 AEST equivalent local settlement). That morning peak drove prices to $84.79-$90.89/MWh, confirming NSW's tight demand-price coupling this winter morning: every 1,000 MW swing in demand is translating to roughly $15-25/MWh of price movement in the current supply stack.
The overnight price data shows this relationship clearly. Demand cratered to a low of 6,290 MW around 03:25 AEST, coinciding with prices falling to $26-34/MWh. As demand climbed through the morning ramp (05:00-08:00 AEST), rising from 7,168 MW to over 10,000 MW, prices responded in lockstep, spiking above $97/MWh at the 07:25-07:30 AEST interval when demand hit 10,004 MW — the sharpest price response of the period. This is a textbook cold-morning demand curve: heating load building from dawn, peaking through the 07:00-09:00 AEST window, then easing through the day.
AEMO's forecast trajectory for the remainder of today points to continued volatility. Forecast RRP climbs to $77.54-$86.65/MWh through the 07:00-09:00 AEST window tomorrow morning (17:00-19:00 UTC target times), with a secondary evening peak forecast at $97.55/MWh around 21:00 AEST. Overnight, forecast prices swing negative (-$2.00 to -$2.15/MWh) between 10:00-14:00 AEST, reflecting minimal demand against wind generation currently running at 1,982 MW. Current renewable penetration sits at 36.7% with carbon intensity at 0.5555 tCO2/MWh; black coal is supplying 3,993 MW as the demand-following baseload component. With overnight temperatures forecast at 9.3-14.9°C and low solar potential (18.8%) due to today's cloud cover, heating-driven demand will likely repeat tomorrow's morning ramp pattern, keeping price risk skewed toward the 07:00-09:00 AEST and evening peak windows. No load-shedding or demand-side notices are active for NSW today; the sole regional notice was a non-conformance flag on battery unit