Commodity Demand — NSW1: Monday 24 August 2026
NSW demand sits at 7,931 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $95.20/MWh — tracking the tail end of this morning's ramp after demand climbed from an overnight low near 4,970 MW (02:35-02:40 AEST) to a sharp early-morning peak of 9,436 MW at 08:05 AEST, where price hit $114.59/MWh. The demand-price relationship today is tight and highly elastic: every 1,000 MW swing in load has moved price by roughly $50-90/MWh through the morning shoulder, consistent with gas peaking plant setting the marginal price once black coal generation (currently 5,445 MW) and wind (1,596 MW) are fully committed.
The demand trajectory today follows the classic winter double-peak pattern. Overnight minimum demand near 4,970-5,000 MW between 02:00-03:00 AEST coincided with negative pricing (down to -$6.62/MWh at 05:45 AEST) as wind output combined with low load pushed the market into oversupply. Demand then ramped hard into the morning peak, lifting price from $0/MWh at 05:15 AEST to above $119/MWh by 08:00 AEST — a swing of roughly 3,700 MW in under three hours. AEMO's forecast curve shows a second, larger peak building through today's evening period, with forecast prices climbing from $65-75/MWh in the early afternoon trough to $119.02/MWh between 08:30-09:30 AEST tomorrow morning (18:30-19:30 AEST today in local terms), signalling the evening demand ramp will again test the $110-120/MWh band as solar drops away and heating load picks up.
Weather is reinforcing the demand profile: today's forecast top of just 19.6°C with 100% cloud cover and near-zero solar potential (0%) removes the midday demand relief typically provided by rooftop PV, while overnight minimums near 15.6°C keep heating demand present into the morning ramp. Wind potential remains modest at 4.2% today, limiting renewable offset during the evening peak. Carbon intensity is currently 0.599 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 31.8% of the mix — both metrics tracking in line with the demand cycle, as intensity rose to 0.66 tCO2/MWh during the low-renewable midday period and is now easing as evening wind generation firms.
No demand-side interventions or load-shedding notices are active for NSW today; the only live market interventions relate to SA voltage support (Torrens Island, Barker Inlet directions) and are not impacting NSW pricing. Identified low-price windows for flexible load sit between 23:00-00:00 AEST tonight ($60.57/MWh average) and 03:30-04:30 AEST ($66.18/MWh average), both offering $50+/MWh savings versus today's peak pricing band.