Commodity Demand — NSW1: Tuesday 25 August 2026
NSW spot price sits at $110.96/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 8,196 MW, easing back after an overnight peak that pushed demand above 10,200 MW and prices as high as $185.51/MWh during the 07:15-08:05 window yesterday. That morning peak shows the region's price sensitivity clearly: as demand climbed from 8,700 MW to over 10,000 MW between 05:00 and 08:00, prices roughly doubled from the $100-120/MWh band to sustained readings above $140/MWh, with several 5-minute intervals spiking past $170/MWh. Demand has since retraced through the day, bottoming near 6,780 MW around 17:25 before climbing back into the evening peak.
The forecast trajectory points to a repeat pattern today. AEMO's price forecast shows overnight troughs as low as $10-24/MWh between 01:00 and 06:00 AEST as demand falls to overnight lows, before a sharp ramp to $65.50/MWh by 07:00 and $101-114/MWh through the 07:30-08:30 morning ramp as heating load and commercial demand build. Forecast prices then hold in a $113-129/MWh band through the middle of the day into early afternoon, with a secondary lift toward $119-120/MWh forecast around the 17:00-17:30 evening peak before easing to $97.63/MWh by 18:00. This morning-and-evening double-peak shape is consistent with the demand curve traders should expect: two windows of elevated price risk bracketing a firmer but calmer midday period.
Generation mix at the current interval shows black coal supplying 6,088 MW of NSW's output, with hydro at 714 MW, battery discharge at 363 MW, wind at 308 MW and solar at just 93 MW given early-morning conditions. Carbon intensity sits at 0.707 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 19.1%, a level typical for pre-dawn hours before solar ramps. Weather data shows minimal wind potential (9.8 km/h, 1.5% wind potential) and zero solar output currently, meaning today's midday price support depends more on thermal capacity and battery dispatch than on renewable supply displacing demand.
On demand-side factors, AEMO's non-conformance notice for unit VP6 (-21 MW, 05:45-05:50 AEST) is a minor, localised event unlikely to move regional pricing. No load-shedding, demand response activation, or major network constraints affecting NSW appear in today's notices — the Vineyard-Sydney West and Kemps Creek transmission outages that constrained NSW transfer capacity earlier in August have already been resolved and returned to service. Traders should treat today's price risk as demand-driven and weather-driven rather than network-driven, with the 07:00-08:30 and 17:00-19:00 windows carrying the highest exposure to price spikes above $150/MWh if actual demand tracks toward the upper end of the forecast range.