Commodity Demand — NSW1: Tuesday 7 July 2026
NSW demand sits at 8,901 MW as of 06:25 AEST, with spot price at $127.22/MWh — climbing back up after an overnight trough that saw prices dip as low as $0.01/MWh near 04:05 when demand bottomed around 8,300-8,550 MW. The current price uptick tracks a demand ramp that began around 05:00, with demand rising roughly 600 MW in the past 90 minutes as the morning load-building phase gets underway.
The overnight data shows a clear demand-price relationship: prices held near $70-100/MWh through the low-demand window between 22:00 and 05:00 AEST, with the deepest trough (demand at 8,301 MW at 00:45) coinciding with sub-$85 pricing. As demand climbed through the 06:00-08:00 window yesterday, hitting a peak of 11,175 MW at 07:45, prices spiked correspondingly to $146/MWh — a pattern likely to repeat this morning. Demand sensitivity is pronounced above the 10,000 MW mark, where every 200-300 MW increment has historically pushed prices into the $130-146/MWh band.
Today's forecast trajectory points to a much sharper price response than yesterday's morning peak. AEMO's forecast curve shows prices climbing to $169.25/MWh by 07:00 AEST and holding in the $146-169/MWh range through the 07:00-10:30 window, with a second high print of $169.23/MWh forecast for 08:30. This suggests the morning demand ramp today is expected to be tighter or supply conditions marginally more constrained than yesterday's equivalent period, when 11,000+ MW demand only pushed prices to $146/MWh. Afternoon prices are forecast to ease back to the $97-111/MWh band from 13:00 onward as demand tapers, consistent with yesterday's pattern where demand fell to 7,365 MW by 16:50 alongside prices near $100/MWh.
No demand-side interventions or load-shedding directions are active in NSW today — the most recent NSW-specific intervention (05/07 direction affecting Darlington Point, Riverina 1 and 2 batteries) was cancelled effective 06/07. Cold outdoor conditions (11°C, heating demand index 7) are consistent with the elevated morning load profile, and with minimal solar potential (7.2% avg today) and modest wind (5.4% av