Commodity Demand — NSW1: Friday 3 July 2026
NSW demand sits at 7,851 MW at 06:25 AEST, with spot price at $90.11/MWh, up from an overnight trough of effectively $0/MWh when demand bottomed near 6,750-6,900 MW between 03:00-04:30 AEST. The overnight data shows textbook demand-price sensitivity: as demand fell from ~9,250 MW at 07:35 AEST yesterday evening to the 6,750 MW low, prices collapsed from the $80-120/MWh range to sub-$10/MWh, with several intervals printing below $1/MWh. Demand is now climbing through the morning ramp, tracking a similar trajectory to yesterday when it peaked near 10,300 MW at 07:55 AEST with prices holding in the $73-101/MWh band.
Today's forecast curve points to a much sharper price response later in the morning and into midday than current levels suggest. AEMO's forecast has prices holding near $79-89/MWh through 08:00-09:30 AEST before stepping up materially: $111/MWh by 07:00, $114.80-119.64/MWh through the 08:00-10:30 window, and a peak forecast of $131.47/MWh at 12:00 AEST. This afternoon price escalation is unusual for a winter Saturday and likely reflects tightening reserve margins rather than pure demand growth, given cold overnight temperatures (10.5°C, heating demand at 7.5) are supporting a firmer morning load build than typical weekend patterns.
Demand-side risk factors are notable today. AEMO has reclassified the Upper Tumut units 1-4 trip as a credible contingency event (active since 16:00 yesterday, cause still under investigation), which constrains dispatch flexibility in southern NSW. Separately, the NSW-QLD interconnector transfer limit (constraint I-QN_600) was invoked yesterday to manage power system security, a constraint that could reappear today given similar conditions and would limit NSW's ability to import cheaper QLD generation during the midday demand build. With current generation mix showing black coal at 5,391 MW carrying the bulk of load and wind at 1,068 MW, any shortfall in wind output during the forecast price spike window would add further upward pressure beyond the current $114-131/MWh projections.
For the carbon picture, renewable penetration sits at 24.55% with grid carbon intensity at 0.6624 t