Commodity Demand — NSW1: Saturday 4 July 2026
NSW spot price sits at $78.99/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 7,671 MW, climbing from an overnight low of 5,741 MW around 03:00 AEST. The price-demand relationship through today's data is pronounced: as demand ramped from 6,500 MW to 9,873 MW between 04:30 and 08:00 AEST, prices moved from negative territory (-$5.83/MWh) to peaks above $100/MWh, with several 5-minute intervals touching $110-111/MWh as demand pushed past 9,600 MW. Demand has since eased back from the late-morning peak near 9,900 MW to current levels around 7,600-7,700 MW, and price has correspondingly softened from the $90-105/MWh band into the high $70s/$80s.
The forecast trajectory points to further easing overnight. AEMO's dispatch forecasts show prices declining from $88.88/MWh at 21:00 AEST to $43.05/MWh by 23:00 AEST, then dropping to $23.99/MWh around midnight before a modest rebound to $50/MWh in the early hours of 5 July. This tracks the typical winter demand curve — overnight minimum demand periods correlate with the lowest prices, consistent with load-following patterns seen in yesterday's data where sub-$10/MWh and negative prices occurred between 04:00-05:00 AEST alongside troughs near 5,900-6,200 MW.
Looking to tomorrow's morning ramp, forecast prices climb again from $60.43/MWh at 06:30 AEST to $105.21/MWh by 09:00 AEST as demand is expected to rebuild through the cold-weather morning peak — current temperature is 10.4°C with heating demand at 7.6, supporting continued high overnight and morning load. Afternoon forecasts ease toward $52-56/MWh by mid-afternoon before a secondary evening lift, reflecting the typical dual-peak winter demand shape.
On the supply side, current generation mix shows black coal at 4,398 MW and wind at 1,427 MW covering the bulk of the 7,671 MW load, with renewable penetration at 32.09% and carbon intensity at 0.5967 tCO2/MWh. No NSW-specific demand-side constraints are active in market notices; the reclassified Upper Tumut units 1-4 outage (non-credible contingency, effective